Determining the recurrence timescale of long-lasting YSO outbursts

We have determined the rate of large accretion events in class I and II young stellar objects (YSOs) by comparing the all-sky digitised photographic plate surveys provided by SuperCOSMOS with the latest data release from Gaia (DR2). The long mean baseline of 55 years along with a large sample of class II YSOs (≃15,000) allows us to study approximately 1 million YSO-years. We find 139 objects with ΔR≥1~mag, most of which are found at amplitudes between 1 and 3 mag. The majority of YSOs in this group show irregular variability or long-lasting fading events, which is best explained as hot spots due to accretion or by variable extinction. There is a tail of YSOs at ΔR≥3~mag and they seem to represent a different population. Surprisingly many objects in this group show high-amplitude irregular variability over timescales shorter than 10 years, in contrast with the view that high-amplitude objects always have long outbursts. However, we find 6 objects that are consistent with undergoing large, long lasting accretion events, 3 of them previously unknown. This yields an outburst recurrence timescale of 112 kyr, with a 68\% confidence interval [74 to 180] kyr. This represents the first robust determination of the outburst rate in class II YSOs and shows that YSOs in their planet-forming stage do in fact undergo large accretion events, and with timescales of ≃100,000 years. In addition, we find that outbursts in the class II stage are ≃10 times less frequent than during the class I stage.