Browsing Mathematics by Title
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A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?
(arXiv.org, 20150408)Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that ... 
Bayesian history matching of complex infectious disease models using emulation: a tutorial and a case study on HIV in Uganda
(Public Library of Science, 201501)Advances in scientific computing have allowed the development of complex models that are being routinely applied to problems in disease epidemiology, public health and decision making. The utility of these models depends ... 
Bayesian inductively learned modules for safety critical systems
(Interface Foundation of North America, Inc., 2003)This work examines the use of Bayesian inductively learned software modules for safety critical systems. Central to the safety critical application is the desire to generate confidence measures associated with predictions. ... 
Bayesian model choice in cumulative link ordinal regression models
(International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA), 20150128)The use of the proportional odds (PO) model for ordinal regression is ubiquitous in the literature. If the assumption of parallel lines does not hold for the data, then an alternative is to specify a nonproportional odds ... 
Best practices for postprocessing ensemble climate forecasts, part I: selecting appropriate recalibration methods
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)This study describes a systematic approach to selecting optimal statistical recalibration methods and hindcast designs for producing reliable probability forecasts on seasonaltodecadal time scales. A new recalibration ... 
Beyond inphase and antiphase coordination in a model of joint action
(Springer Verlag (Germany), 20160608)In 1985, Haken, Kelso and Bunz proposed a system of coupled nonlinear oscillators as a model of rhythmic movement patterns in human bimanual coordination. Since then, the Haken–Kelso–Bunz (HKB) model has become a modelling ... 
A biascorrected decomposition of the Brier score
(Royal Meteorological Society, 2012)The Brier score is a widely used measure of performance for probabilistic forecasts of event occurrences and is often decomposed additively into three terms that quantify the reliability and resolution of the forecasts and ... 
Biclustering models for structured microarray data
(IEEE, 2005)Microarrays have become a standard tool for investigating gene function and more complex microarray experiments are increasingly being conducted. For example, an experiment may involve samples from several groups or may ... 
Bidirectional transport and pulsing states in a multilane ASEP model
(IOP Publishing, 2011)In this paper, we introduce an ASEPlike transport model for bidirectional motion of particles on a multilane lattice. The model is motivated by {\em in vivo} experiments on organelle motility along a microtubule (MT), ... 
Bifurcation Analysis of a TwoCompartment Hippocampal Pyramidal Cell Model
(Springer Verlag, 20160525)The PinskyRinzel model is a nonsmooth 2compartmental CA3 pyramidal cell model that has been used widely within the field of neuroscience. Here we propose a modified (smooth) system that captures the qualitative behaviour ... 
Bifurcation analysis of delayinduced resonances of the ElNiño Southern Oscillation.
(Royal Society, 2014)Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops ... 
Bifurcation to heteroclinic cycles and sensitivity in three and four coupled phase oscillators
(Elsevier, 2008)We study the bifurcation and dynamical behaviour of the system of N globally coupled identical phase oscillators introduced by Hansel, Mato and Meunier, in the cases N=3 and N=4. This model has been found to exhibit robust ... 
Biomass burning related ozone damage on vegetation over the Amazon forest: A model sensitivity study
(European Geosciences Union, 20150310)© Author(s) 2015. The HadGEM2 earth system climate model was used to assess the impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations over the Amazon forest and its impact on vegetation, under presentday climate ... 
Bistability in feedback circuits as a byproduct of evolution of evolvability
(2012)Noisy bistable dynamics in gene regulation can underlie stochastic switching and is demonstrated to be beneficial under fluctuating environments. It is not known, however, if fluctuating selection alone can result in ... 
Blowout bifurcation in a system of coupled chaotic lasers
(American Physical Society, 1998)We show that loss of synchronization of two identical coupled chaotic class B lasers can occur via a blowout bifurcation. This occurs when a transverse Lyapunov exponent governing the stability of a synchronized subspace ... 
Bounded real and positive real balanced truncation for infinitedimensional systems
(American Institute of Mathematical Sciences, 2013)Bounded real balanced truncation for infinitedimensional systems is considered. This provides reduced order finitedimensional systems that retain bounded realness. We obtain an error bound analogous to the finitedimensional ... 
Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration
(Elsevier, 2014)Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers ... 
Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble
(Nature Publishing Group, 2012)Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in ... 
BSim: an agentbased tool for modeling bacterial populations in systems and synthetic biology.
(Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2012)Largescale collective behaviors such as synchronization and coordination spontaneously arise in many bacterial populations. With systems biology attempting to understand these phenomena, and synthetic biology opening up ...