Now showing items 1-4 of 4

  • Dengue epidemic early warning system for Brazil 

    Lowe, Rachel; Rodo, X.; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sa; Coelho, Caio A.S.; Bailey, Trevor C.; Jupp, Tim E.; Stephenson, David B.; Coelho, Giovanini E.; Graham, Richard J.; Ramalho, W.M. (UNISDR Scientific and Technical Advisory Group, 2015)
    The problem Brazil has reported more cases of dengue fever than anywhere else in the world this century1. Many cities have tropical and sub-tropical climate conditions that allow the dengue mosquito to thrive during warmer, ...
  • The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil 

    Lowe, Rachel; Bailey, Trevor C.; Stephenson, David B.; Jupp, Tim E.; Graham, Richard J.; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sa (2013)
    Previous studies demonstrate statistically significant associations between disease and climate variations, highlighting the potential for developing climate-based epidemic early warning systems. However, limitations include ...
  • Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil 

    Lowe, Rachel; Coehlo, Caio A.S.; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sa; De Castro Catao, Rafael; Coelho, Giovanini E.; Ramalho, W.M.; Bailey, Trevor C.; Stephenson, David B.; Rodo, X. (eLife Sciences Publications, 2016)
    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across ...
  • Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil 

    Lowe, Rachel; Bailey, Trevor C.; Stephenson, David B.; Graham, Richard J.; Coelho, Caio A.S.; Carvalho, Marilia Sa; Barcellos, Christovam (Elsevier, 2011)
    This paper considers the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in developing an early warning system for dengue fever epidemics in Brazil. In the first instance, a generalised linear model (GLM) is used to select ...