Now showing items 1-20 of 23

  • Assessing the significance of changes in ENSO amplitude using variance metrics 

    Russon, T.; Tudhope, A.; Hegerl, G.C.; Schurer, A.; Collins, Matthew (American Meteorological Society, 2014-01-01)
    The variance of time series records relating to ENSO, such as the interannual anomalies or bandpass filtered components of equatorial Pacific SST indices, provides one approach to quantifying changes in ENSO amplitude. ...
  • Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble 

    Rowlands, Daniel J.; Frame, David J.; Ackerley, Duncan; Aina, Tolu; Booth, Ben B.B.; Christensen, Carl; Collins, Matthew; Faull, Nicholas; Forest, Chris E.; Grandey, Benjamin S.; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Highwood, Eleanor J.; Ingram, William J.; Knight, Sylvia; Lopez, Ana; Massey, Neil; McNamara, Frances; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Piani, Claudio; Rosier, Suzanne M.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Smith, Leonard A.; Stone, Daithi A.; hurston, Milo; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Yamazak, Y. Hiro; Allen, Myles R. (Nature Publishing Group, 2012)
    Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in ...
  • The carbon cycle response to ENSO: a coupled climate–carbon cycle model study 

    Jones, Chris D.; Collins, Matthew; Cox, Peter M.; Spall, Steven A. (American Meteorological Society, 2001)
    There is significant interannual variability in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) even when the effect of anthropogenic sources has been accounted for. This variability is well correlated with the El ...
  • Correction to: “Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions” 

    Frame, David J.; Booth, Ben B.B.; Kettleborough, J.A.; Stainforth, D.A.; Gregory, J.M.; Collins, Matthew; Allen, Myles R. (American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley, 2014-05-02)
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  • ENSO and greenhouse warming 

    Cai, W; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Yeh, S-W; An, S-I; Cobb, KM; Collins, Matthew; Guilyardi, Eric; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kug, J-S; Lengaigne, M; McPhaden, Michael J.; Takahashi, K; Timmermann, A; Vecchi, Gabriel; Watanabe, Masahiro; Wu, L (Nature Publishing Group, 2015-08-21)
    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement ...
  • Enso extremes and diversity: Dynamics, teleconnections, and impacts 

    Santoso, Agus; Cai, Wenju; Collins, Matthew; McPhaden, Michael J.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Guilyardi, Eric; Vecchi, Gabriel; Dommenget, Dietmar; Wang, Guojian (American Meteorological Society, 2015-11)
    In boreal spring of 2014, the tropical Pacific was primed for an El Niño, when most forecast agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology elevated ...
  • Extreme swings of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and the different types of El Niño events 

    Borlace, Simon; Santoso, Agus; Cai, Wenju; Collins, Matthew (American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley, 2014-07-16)
    There have been three extreme equatorward swings of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) during the satellite era. These zonal SPCZ (zSPCZ) events coincided with an El Niño of different magnitude and spatial pattern, ...
  • A hiatus in the stratosphere? 

    Ferraro, Angus J.; Collins, Matthew; Lambert, F. Hugo (Nature Publishing Group, 2015-05-21)
    To the Editor — Since the turn of the twenty-first century there has been a hiatus in the cooling of the lower stratosphere (Fig. 1a). This 'stratospheric hiatus' is happening at the same time as the well-documented ...
  • Impact of a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme across time-scales and resolutions 

    Sanchez, Claudio; Williams, Keith D.; Shutts, Glenn; Collins, Matthew (Royal Meteorological Society, 2014)
    Stochastic physics is one of the preferred methods to represent model uncertainty in ensemble prediction systems of medium-range weather prediction and seasonal forecasting. These schemes increase the ensemble spread and ...
  • Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming 

    Cai, Wenju; Borlace, Simon; Lengaigne, Matthieu; van Rensch, Peter; Collins, Matthew; Vecchi, Gabriel; Timmermann, Axel; Santoso, Agus; McPhaden, Michael J.; Wu, Lixin; England, Matthew H.; Wang, Guojian; Guilyardi, Eric; Jin, Fei-Fei (Nature Publishing Group, 2014-01-19)
    El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as 'the climate event of the twentieth century', and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño, featured ...
  • Inferring changes in ENSO amplitude from the variance of proxy records 

    Russon, T.; Tudhope, A.; Collins, Matthew; Hegerl, G.C. (American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley, 2015-02-19)
    One common approach to investigating past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is through quantifying the variance of ENSO-influenced proxy records. However, a component of the variance of all such ...
  • Inferring changes in ENSO amplitude from the variance of proxy records 

    Russon, T; Tudhope, AW; Collins, Matthew; Hegerl, GC (Wiley, 2015)
    One common approach to investigating past changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is through quantifying the variance of ENSO-influenced proxy records. However, a component of the variance of all such ...
  • Inter-annual tropical Pacific climate variability in an isotope-enabled CGCM: Implications for interpreting coral stable oxygen isotope records of ENSO 

    Russon, T; Tudhope, AW; Hegerl, GC; Collins, Matthew; Tindall, J (Copernicus Publications, 2013-08-01)
    Water isotope-enabled coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models allow for exploration of the relative contributions to coral stable oxygen isotope (δ18Ocoral) variability arising from sea surface temperature (SST) and the ...
  • Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change: Policy Responses to Protect Public Health 

    Watts, Nick; Adger, W. Neil; Agnolucci, Paolo; Blackstock, Jason; Byass, Peter; Cai, Wenjia; Chaytor, Sarah; Colbourn, Tim; Collins, Matthew; Cooper, Adam; Cox, Peter M.; Depledge, Joanna; Drummond, Paul; Ekins, Paul; Galaz, Victor; Grace, Delia; Graham, Hilary; Grubb, Michael; Haines, Andy; Hamilton, Ian; Hunter, Alasdair; Jiang, Xujia; Li, Moxuan; Kelman, Ilan; Liang, Lu; Lott, Melissa; Lowe, Robert; Luo, Yong; Mace, Georgina; Maslin, Mark; Nilsson, Maria; Oreszczyn, Tadj; Pye, Steve; Quinn, Tara; Svensdotter, My; Venevsky, Sergey; Warner, Koko; Xu, Bing; Yang, Jun; Yin, Yongyuan; Yu, Chaoqing; Zhang, Qiang; Gong, Peng; Montgomery, Hugh; Costello, Anthony (Elsevier, 2015)
    Executive Summary The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards ...
  • Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene 

    Emile-Geay, J; Cobb, K.M.; Carré, M.; Braconnot, P.; Leloup, J.; Zhou, Y; Harrison, Sandy; Corrège, T.; McGregor, H.V.; Collins, Matthew; Driscoll, R.; Elliot, M; Schneider, B; Tudhope, A. (Nature Publishing Group, 2015-12-14)
    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of ...
  • An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change. 

    Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Collins, Matthew; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran (The Royal Society, 2008-05-27)
    Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for ...
  • On Identifying the role of Sun and the El Nino Southern Oscillation on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall 

    Roy, Indrani; Collins, Matthew (Wliey / Royal Meteorological Society, 2014-12-13)
    A solar influence on Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall, identified in previous studies using the method of solar peak year compositing, may not be robust and can be influenced by other factors such as the El Nino Southern ...
  • Physical Mechanisms of Tropical Climate Feedbacks Investigated Using Temperature and Moisture Trends 

    Ferraro, Angus J.; Lambert, F. Hugo; Collins, Matthew; Miles, G.M. (American Meteorological Society, 2015)
    Tropical climate feedback mechanisms are assessed using satellite-observed and model-simulated trends in tropical tropospheric temperature from the MSU/AMSU instruments and upper-tropospheric humidity from the HIRS ...
  • Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming 

    Roberts, C.D.; Palmer, M.D.; McNeall, D.; Collins, Matthew (Nature Publishing Group, 2015-02-23)
    Since the end of the twentieth century, global mean surface temperature has not risen as rapidly as predicted by global climate models (GCMs). This discrepancy has become known as the global warming a hiatus'and a variety ...
  • Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles 

    Yokohata, Tokuta; Annan, James D.; Collins, Matthew; Jackson, Charles S.; Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Emori, Seita; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Abe, Manabu; Webb, Mark J.; Hargreaves, Julia C. (Springer, 2013-11-01)
    We investigate the performance of the newest generation multi-model ensemble (MME) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We compare the ensemble to the previous generation models (CMIP3) as well as several ...