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dc.contributor.authorXu, C
dc.contributor.authorKohler, TA
dc.contributor.authorLenton, TM
dc.contributor.authorSvenning, J-C
dc.contributor.authorScheffer, M
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-04T14:34:06Z
dc.date.issued2020-05-04
dc.description.abstractAll species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth's land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipLeverhulme Trusten_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 117, pp. 11350 - 11355en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.1910114117
dc.identifier.grantnumberRPG-2018-046en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/121278
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciencesen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32366654en_GB
dc.rightsThis open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercialNoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND)en_GB
dc.subjectclimateen_GB
dc.subjectmigrationen_GB
dc.subjectsocietiesen_GB
dc.titleFuture of the human climate nicheen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2020-06-04T14:34:06Z
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424
exeter.place-of-publicationUnited Statesen_GB
dc.descriptionThis is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.en_GB
dc.identifier.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesen_GB
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2020
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2020-05-04
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2020-06-04T14:26:21Z
refterms.versionFCDVoR
refterms.dateFOA2020-06-04T14:34:12Z
refterms.panelCen_GB
refterms.depositExceptionpublishedGoldOA
refterms.depositExceptionExplanationhttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117


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This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercialNoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND)
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