Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw
dc.contributor.author | Hugelius, G | |
dc.contributor.author | Loisel, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Chadburn, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Jackson, RB | |
dc.contributor.author | Jones, M | |
dc.contributor.author | MacDonald, G | |
dc.contributor.author | Marushchak, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Olefeldt, D | |
dc.contributor.author | Packalen, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Siewert, MB | |
dc.contributor.author | Treat, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Turetsky, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Voigt, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Yu, Z | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-09-17T08:29:04Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-08-10 | |
dc.description.abstract | Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y-1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Swedish Research Council | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union Horizon 2020 | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Gordon and Betty and Gordon Moore Foundation | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Science Foundation | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Natural Science Foundation of China | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 117 (34), pp. 20438 - 20446 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1073/pnas.1916387117 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 2014-06417 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 2018-04516 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 773421 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | BMF5439 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/R015791/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 1802810 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 41877458 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/122890 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | National Academy of Sciences | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32778585 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://bolin.su.se/data/hugelius-2020 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). | en_GB |
dc.subject | carbon stocks | en_GB |
dc.subject | greenhouse gas fluxes | en_GB |
dc.subject | nitrogen stocks | en_GB |
dc.subject | northern peatlands | en_GB |
dc.subject | permafrost thaw | en_GB |
dc.title | Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2020-09-17T08:29:04Z | |
exeter.place-of-publication | United States | en_GB |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Availability. The results and peat core data are summarized in Datasets S1–S6. Maps of predicted peatland extent, peat depth, and peat C and N storage (10-km pixels) are archived and freely available for download at https://bolin.su.se/data/hugelius-2020 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1091-6490 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2020-06-05 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2020-08-10 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2020-09-17T08:25:04Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2020-09-17T08:29:15Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.depositException | publishedGoldOA |
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This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).