Climate response and sensitivity: timescales and late tipping points
dc.contributor.author | Bastiaansen, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Ashwin, P | |
dc.contributor.author | von der Heydt, AS | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-30T10:00:26Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-01-04 | |
dc.date.updated | 2022-11-30T09:12:04Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling. However, both in their estimation and their usage, such metrics make assumptions on the linearity of climate response, although it is known that, especially for larger forcing levels, response can be nonlinear. Such nonlinear responses may become visible immediately in response to a larger perturbation, or may only become apparent after a long transient. In this paper, we illustrate some potential problems and caveats when estimating ECS from transient simulations. We highlight ways that very slow timescales may lead to poor estimation of ECS even if there is seemingly good fit to linear response over moderate timescales. Moreover, such slow timescale might lead to late abrupt responses ("late tipping points") associated with a system's nonlinearities. We illustrate these ideas using simulations on a global energy balance model with dynamic albedo. We also discuss the implications for estimating ECS for global climate models, highlighting that it is likely to remain difficult to make definitive statements about the simulation times needed to reach an equilibrium. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union’s Horizon 2020 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 479 (2269), article 20220483 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1098/rspa.2022.0483 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 820970 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/131890 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0001-7330-4951 (Ashwin, Peter) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Royal Society | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | http://data.iac.ethz.ch/longrunmip/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://github.com/peterashwin/late-tipping-2022 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2023 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. | |
dc.subject | Climate Sensitivity | en_GB |
dc.subject | Nonlinear Dynamics | en_GB |
dc.subject | Tipping Points | en_GB |
dc.subject | Energy Balance Model | en_GB |
dc.title | Climate response and sensitivity: timescales and late tipping points | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2022-11-30T10:00:26Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1364-5021 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from the Royal Society via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Accessibility. Simulation data from models in LongRunMIP data.iac.ethz.ch/longrunmip/, including the here used model CESM 1.0.4, requests for access can be made to the coordinators of LongRunMIP. More information and details of the simulations can be found on longrunmip.org and in [8]. The numerical code to simulate and subsequently analyse the conceptual energy balance model introduced in equations (3.1), (3.3), (3.4) is available from https://github.com/peterashwin/late-tipping-2022. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1471-2946 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2022-11-29 | |
dcterms.dateSubmitted | 2022-07-13 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2022-11-30T09:12:10Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2023-02-01T16:12:33Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2023 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.