Defeating cap-and-trade: how the fossil fuel industry and climate change counter movement obstruct U.S. climate change legislation

Abstract

This study investigates the role of climate change contrarians in the defeat of the American Clean Energy and Security Act in 2010, a pivotal moment in U.S. climate policy that marked the end of extensive efforts to enact cap-and-trade climate legislation in the United States. Our research objectives are twofold: firstly, to determine the extent to which climate contrarians gained access to testify at congressional hearings in the years leading up to the bill's ultimate defeat; and secondly, to examine the potential influence of fossil fuel industry (FFI) funds in facilitating this access. We compile a comprehensive new dataset encompassing all witnesses testifying at cap-and-trade and climate science hearings from 2003 to 2010. This information is cross-referenced with other pertinent data concerning interest groups, lobbying activities, and Congress. Our findings reveal a significant correlation between FFI lobbying expenditures and campaign contributions and the presence of contrarian witnesses at these hearings, suggesting a coordinated effort by the FFI to obstruct climate legislation. We find that contrarians were able to obtain disproportionate access to central hearings in key committees with jurisdiction over cap-and-trade bills, increasing their potential to obstruct legislation. Moreover, our analysis exposes a concerning over-representation of scientists known to deny the scientific consensus at these hearings, undermining the scientific consensus on climate change and perpetuating doubt about the urgency of climate action.