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dc.contributor.authorBradshaw, Corey J.A.
dc.contributor.authorBrook, Barry W.
dc.contributor.authorDelean, Steven
dc.contributor.authorFordham, Damien A.
dc.contributor.authorHerrando-Perez, Salvador
dc.contributor.authorCassey, Phillip
dc.contributor.authorEarly, Regan
dc.contributor.authorSekercioglu, Cagan H.
dc.contributor.authorAragao, Miguel B.
dc.date.accessioned2014-11-14T10:55:17Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.description.abstractGeographical range dynamics are driven by the joint effects of abiotic factors, human ecosystem modifications, biotic interactions and the intrinsic organismal responses to these. However, the relative contribution of each component remains largely unknown. Here, we compare the contribution of life-history attributes, broad-scale gradients in climate and geographical context of species’ historical ranges, as predictors of recent changes in area of occupancy for 116 terrestrial British breeding birds (74 contractors, 42 expanders) between the early 1970s and late 1990s. Regional threat classifications demonstrated that the species of highest conservation concern showed both the largest contractions and the smallest expansions. Species responded differently to climate depending on geographical distribution—northern species changed their area of occupancy (expansion or contraction) more in warmer and drier regions, whereas southern species changed more in colder and wetter environments. Species with slow life history (larger body size) tended to have a lower probability of changing their area of occupancy than species with faster life history, whereas species with greater natal dispersal capacity resisted contraction and, counterintuitively, expansion. Higher geographical fragmentation of species' range also increased expansion probability, possibly indicating a release from a previously limiting condition, for example through agricultural abandonment since the 1970s. After accounting statistically for the complexity and nonlinearity of the data, our results demonstrate two key aspects of changing area of occupancy for British birds: (i) climate is the dominant driver of change, but direction of effect depends on geographical context, and (ii) all of our predictors generally had a similar effect regardless of the direction of the change (contraction versus expansion). Although we caution applying results from Britain's highly modified and well-studied bird community to other biogeographic regions, our results do indicate that a species' propensity to change area of occupancy over decadal scales can be explained partially by a combination of simple allometric predictors of life-history pace, average climate conditions and geographical context.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipAustralian Research Councilen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipIntegrated Program of IC&DTen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipFCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia)en_GB
dc.format.medium1786
dc.identifier.citationVol. 281 (1786), article 20140744en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rspb.2014.0744
dc.identifier.grantnumberFuture Fellowship FT110100306en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberFuture Fellowship FT100100200en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberFuture Fellowship FT0991420en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberDiscovery Project grant no. DP1096427en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberCall No 1/SAESCTN/ALENT-07-0224-FEDER-001755en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberPost Doctoral grant BPD/63195/2009en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/15851
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherRoyal Societyen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.0744en_GB
dc.rights.embargoreasonPublisher's policyen_GB
dc.subjectbiogeographyen_GB
dc.subjectbody sizeen_GB
dc.subjectclimateen_GB
dc.subjectdemographyen_GB
dc.subjectdispersalen_GB
dc.subjectthreatened speciesen_GB
dc.titlePredictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birdsen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.identifier.issn0080-4649
dc.descriptionCopyright © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Societyen_GB
dc.identifier.journalProceedings of the Royal Society of London Ben_GB


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