Voting and the economic cycle
Maloney, John; Pickering, Andrew
Date: 2014
Journal
Public Choice
Publisher
Springer
Publisher DOI
Related links
Abstract
Sophisticated voters assess incumbent competence by filtering out economic
cycles (which they do not like) from trend growth (which they do). Naive voters on the
other hand respond only to raw economic growth. This implies that voting in the aggregate
should respond asymmetrically to the economic cycle. Upswings are rewarded by ...
Sophisticated voters assess incumbent competence by filtering out economic
cycles (which they do not like) from trend growth (which they do). Naive voters on the
other hand respond only to raw economic growth. This implies that voting in the aggregate
should respond asymmetrically to the economic cycle. Upswings are rewarded by the
naive, but punished by the sophisticated. Downswings are punished by all voters. Using an
established dataset of over 400 general elections we find that the incumbent vote share
(a) responds differently to trend growth than to the cycle, (b) does not respond significantly
to positive variation in the economic cycle, and (c) responds significantly and negatively to
negative realizations in the economic cycle. In contrast to standard formulations of the
‘grievance asymmetry’ this asymmetric vote response is found to be independent of trend
growth.
Economics
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
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