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dc.contributor.authorBoulton, CA
dc.contributor.authorAllison, LC
dc.contributor.authorLenton, TM
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-15T10:42:13Z
dc.date.issued2014-12-08
dc.description.abstractThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNERCen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Exeteren_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union Seventh Framework programme FP7/2007-2013en_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 5, pp. 5752en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/ncomms6752
dc.identifier.grantnumberNE/G018332/2en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber603864 (HELIX)en_GB
dc.identifier.otherncomms6752
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/17238
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25482065en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/141208/ncomms6752/full/ncomms6752.htmlen_GB
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_GB
dc.subjectOceanographyen_GB
dc.subjectClimate scienceen_GB
dc.subjectEarth sciencesen_GB
dc.titleEarly warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.en_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2015-05-15T10:42:13Z
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
exeter.place-of-publicationEngland
dc.descriptionJournal Articleen_GB
dc.descriptionResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'ten_GB
dc.descriptionCopyright © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.en_GB
dc.identifier.journalNature Communicationsen_GB


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