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dc.contributor.authorRitchie, P
dc.contributor.authorSieber, J
dc.date.accessioned2016-11-23T11:49:21Z
dc.date.issued2016-09
dc.description.abstractA dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node normal form subject to time-varying equilibrium drift and noise. We find that both most commonly used early-warning indicators, increase in variance and increase in autocorrelation, occur not when the equilibrium drift is fastest but with a delay. We explain this delay by demonstrating that the most likely trajectory for tipping also crosses the tipping threshold with a delay, and therefore, the tipping itself is delayed. We find solutions of the variational problem determining the most likely tipping path using numerical continuation techniques. The result is a systematic study of the most likely tipping time in the plane of two parameters, distance from tipping threshold and noise intensity.en_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 26: 093116en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1063/1.4963012
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/24560
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherAIP Publishingen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27781451en_GB
dc.rightsReuse of AIP Publishing content is subject to the terms at: https://publishing.aip.org/authors/rights-and-permissions.en_GB
dc.subjectTipping pointen_GB
dc.subjectrate-induceden_GB
dc.subjectnoise-induceden_GB
dc.subjectearly-warning indicatorsen_GB
dc.titleEarly-warning indicators for rate-induced tippingen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2016-11-23T11:49:21Z
dc.identifier.issn1054-1500
exeter.place-of-publicationUnited Statesen_GB
dc.descriptionThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.en_GB
dc.identifier.journalChaosen_GB
dc.identifier.pmid27781451


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