• Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales 

    Scaife, AA; Athanassiadou, M; Andrews, M; Arribas, A; Baldwin, M; Dunstone, N; Knight, J; Maclachlan, C; Manzini, E; Müller, WA; Pohlmann, H; Smith, D; Stockdale, T; Williams, A (Wiley/American Geophysical Union, 2014-03-16)
    The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere ...
  • Northern winter climate change: assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling 

    Manzini, E; Karpechko, AY; Anstey, J; Baldwin, MP; Black, RX; Cagnazzo, C; Calvo, N; Charlton-Perez, A; Christiansen, B; Davini, P; Gerber, E; Giorgetta, M; Gray, L; Hardiman, SC; Lee, YY; Marsh, DR; McDaniel, BA; Purich, A; Scaife, AA; Shindell, D; Son, SW; Watanabe, S; Zappa, G (American Geophysical Union/Wiley, 2014-07-16)
    ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) ...
  • Mathematical Frameworks for Oscillatory Network Dynamics in Neuroscience. 

    Ashwin, Peter; Coombes, S; Nicks, R (BioMed Central, 2016-01-06)
    The tools of weakly coupled phase oscillator theory have had a profound impact on the neuroscience community, providing insight into a variety of network behaviours ranging from central pattern generation to synchronisation, ...
  • Parameter shifts for nonautonomous systems in low dimension: Bifurcation- and Rate-induced tipping 

    Ashwin, Peter; Perryman, C; Wieczorek, Sebastian (arXiv.org, 2015-06-25)
    We discuss the nonlinear phenomena of irreversible tipping for nonautonomous systems where time-varying inputs correspond to a smooth "parameter shift" from one asymptotic value to another. We define notions of bifurcation-induced ...
  • Dizzy-Beats: a Bayesian evidence analysis tool for systems biology. 

    Aitken, S; Kilpatrick, AM; Akman, Ozgur E. (Oxford University Press, 2015-01-30)
    MOTIVATION: Model selection and parameter inference are complex problems of long-standing interest in systems biology. Selecting between competing models arises commonly as underlying biochemical mechanisms are often not ...

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