• Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes 

  Ciavarella, A; Stott, P; Lowe, J (Nature Research, 3 April 2017)

  Large differences in climate outcomes are projected by the end of this century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase or are reduced sufficiently to limit total warming to below 2 °C (ref.). ...

• Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events 

  Vautard, R; Yiou, P; Otto, F; et al. (IOP Publishing, 2 November 2016)

  We present a new method that allows a separation of the attribution of human influence in extreme events into changes in atmospheric flows and changes in other processes. Assuming two data sets of model simulations or ...

• Detectable anthropogenic shift toward heavy precipitation over eastern China 

  Ma, S; Zhou, T; Stone, DA; et al. (American Meteorological Society, 2 February 2017)

  Changes in precipitation characteristics directly affect society through their impacts on drought and floods, hydro-dams, and urban drainage systems. Global warming increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere ...

• Impact of anthropogenic climate change on the East Asian summer monsoon 

  Burke, C; Stott, P (American Meteorological Society, 13 June 2017)

  The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for bringing rainfall to large areas of China. Historically, variations in the EASM have had major impacts including flooding and drought. The authors present an analysis ...

• Upgrade of the HadGEM3-A based attribution system to high resolution and a new validation framework for probabilistic event attribution 

  Ciavarella, A; Christidis, N; Andrews, M; et al. (Elsevier, 30 April 2018)

  We present a substantial upgrade of the Met Office system for the probabilistic attribution of extreme weather and climate events with higher horizontal and vertical resolution (60 km mid-latitudes and 85 vertical levels), ...

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