Mathematics
Welcome to the research outputs of the University of Exeter College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Department of Mathematics
Recent Submissions

Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model
(Springer Verlag, 2017)We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a highresolution eddypermitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ... 
Computer models to inform epilepsy surgery strategies: prediction of postoperative outcome
(Oxford University Press (OUP) for Guarantors of Brain, 20170318) 
Strong constraints on aerosolcloud interactions from volcanic eruptions
(Springer Nature, 2017)Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn ... 
Approximate Bayesian Computation and simulationbased inference for complex stochastic epidemic models
(Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS), 2017)Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and other simulationbased inference methods are becoming increasingly used for inference in complex systems, due to their relative easeofimplementation. We briefly review some of ... 
Quantifying how userinteraction can modify the perception of the value of climate information: A Bayesian approach
(Elsevier, 20170612)The growing attention user relevance is receiving in the context of climate services is giving new light to engagement activities. However, while there is an almost unanimous consensus that these are important to the ... 
The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms
(European Geosciences Union (EGU) / Copernicus Publications, 20160829)A decline in damaging European windstorms has led to a reduction in insured losses in the 21st century. This decline is explored by identifying a damaging windstorm characteristic and investigating how and why this ... 
Variance estimation for Brier Score decomposition
(Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society, 20130814)The Brier Score is a widelyused criterion to assess the quality of probabilistic predictions of binary events. The expectation value of the Brier Score can be decomposed into the sum of three components called reliability, ... 
Rank Histograms of Stratified Monte Carlo Ensembles
(American Meteorological Society, 20120501)The application of forecast ensembles to probabilistic weather prediction has spurred considerable interest in their evaluation. Such ensembles are commonly interpreted as Monte Carlo ensembles meaning that the ensemble ... 
Parameter uncertainty in forecast recalibration
(Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society, 20160209)Ensemble forecasts of weather and climate are subject to systematic biases in the ensemble mean and variance, leading to inaccurate estimates of the forecast mean and variance. To address these biases, ensemble forecasts ... 
Toy model of ERK signalling with two negative feedback loops: a fast one from ppERK to upstream effectors; and a slow one via phosphatase expression
(2015)This is a computation model used in the study of GnRH signalling; data generated using the model appeared in the paper 'Information Transfer in Gonadotropinreleasing Hormone (GnRH) Signaling: extracellular signalregulated ... 
Mutual information estimation  MATLAB code
(2017)MATLAB function for the estimation of mutual information form cell signalling data 
A Comparison of Regularization Methods for Gaussian Processes
(SIAM: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 201705) 
Mutual information and conditional mean prediction error
(arXiv.org, 2014)Mutual information is fundamentally important for measuring statistical dependence between variables and for quantifying information transfer by signaling and communication mechanisms. It can, however, be challenging to ... 
Modelling endoplasmic reticulum network maintenance in a plant cell
(Biophysical Society, 2017)The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) in plant cells forms a highly dynamic network of complex geometry. ER network morphology and dynamics are influenced by a number of biophysical processes, including filament/tubule tension, ... 
The magnitude and colour of noise in genetic negative feedback systems
(Oxford University Press (OUP), 20120511)The comparative ability of transcriptional and small RNAmediated negative feedback to control fluctuations or 'noise' in gene expression remains unexplored. Both autoregulatory mechanisms usually suppress the average ... 
Stochastic Simulation of Biomolecular Networks in Dynamic Environments
(Public Library of Science, 20160601)Simulation of biomolecular networks is now indispensable for studying biological systems, from small reaction networks to large ensembles of cells. Here we present a novel approach for stochastic simulation of networks ... 
Distributing tasks via multiple input pathways increase cellular survival in stress
(eLife Sciences Publications, 20170517)Improving in one aspect of a task can undermine performance in another, but how such opposing demands play out in single cells and impact on fitness is mostly unknown. Here we study budding yeast in dynamic environments ... 
The fidelity of dynamic signaling by noisy biomolecular networks
(Public Library of Science, 20130328)Cells live in changing, dynamic environments. To understand cellular decisionmaking, we must therefore understand how fluctuating inputs are processed by noisy biomolecular networks. Here we present a general methodology ... 
Understanding bias in the Evaporative Damping of El Niño Southern Oscillation Events in CMIP5 models
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)This study examines the extent of the Pacific double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias in an ensemble of CMIP5 coupled general circulation models and the relationship between this common bias and equatorial Pacific ... 
The thermal phase curve offset on tidally and nontidallylocked exoplanets: a shallow water model
(American Astronomical Society / IOP Publishing, 20170620)Using a shallow water model with timedependent forcing we show that the peak of an exoplanet thermal phase curve is, in general, offset from the secondary eclipse when the planet is rotating. That is, the planetary hotspot ...