Mathematics and Statistics
Recent Submissions
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Consistent, Conservative, and Efficient Advection Updates for Iterative-Implicit Atmospheric Solvers
(Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society, 2024)Atmospheric model dynamical cores that iterate towards a Crank-Nicolson-like implicit time stepping scheme are attractive for operational prediction because their excellent stability properties permit the use of long time ... -
Lead-time-continuous statistical post-processing of ensemble weather forecasts
(Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society, 2024)Numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles often exhibit biases and errors in dispersion, so they need some form of post processing to yield sharp and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions. The output of NWP models ... -
Effect of increased ocean resolution on model errors in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its teleconnections
(Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society, 7 February 2024)Despite the complexity of the underlying processes, coupled climate models simulate fairly realistic El Niño–Southern Oscillation dynamics and teleconnections. However, there are many long-standing errors that remain. We ... -
Coexchangeable process modelling for uncertainty quantification in joint climate reconstruction
(Taylor and Francis / American Statistical Association, 2024)Any experiment with climate models relies on a potentially large set of spatiotemporal boundary conditions. These can represent both the initial state of the system and/or forcings driving the model output throughout the ... -
An analysis of the effects of clouds in high-resolution forecasting of surface short-wave radiation in South Africa
(American Meteorological Society, 30 January 2024)We assess site-specific surface shortwave radiation forecasts from two high-resolution configurations of the South African Weather Service numerical weather prediction model, at 4 and 1.5 km. The models exhibit good skill ...