Mathematics and Statistics
Recent Submissions
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Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds
(Copernicus Publications / European Geosciences Union, 2025)Abstract. Many subsystems of the Earth system, that are currently closely following a stable state, are at risk of undergoing abrupt transitions to a drastically different, and often less desired, state due to anthropogenic ... -
Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty
(Nature Research, 25 March 2025)Most climate projections represent volcanic eruptions as a prescribed constant forcing based on a historical average, which prevents a full quantification of uncertainties in climate projections. Here we show that the ... -
Mediterranean Cyclones in a Changing Climate: A Review on Their Socio‐Economic Impacts
(American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley, 5 May 2025)The Mediterranean Basin, renowned for its cultural, ecological, and climatic significance, frequently endures high-impact weather events driven by Mediterranean cyclones (Medcyclones), atmospheric low-pressure systems ... -
Ocean–land teleconnections and chaotic atmospheric variability
(American Meteorological Society, 11 March 2025)A large ensemble of multidecadal atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations is examined to determine a quantity central to the model’s potential predictability}the fraction of the simulated monthly air ... -
Towards developing an operational Indian ocean dipole warning system for Southeast Asia
(Nature Research, 27 April 2025)Two strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events in 2019 and 2023 led to multiple disasters over Southeast Asia, highlighting the need for warnings of IOD events. This paper presents a stock-take of the current criteria ...