dc.contributor.author | Kellie-Smith, Owen | en_GB |
dc.date.accessioned | 2010-11-09T18:40:27Z | en_GB |
dc.date.accessioned | 2011-01-25T17:28:48Z | en_GB |
dc.date.accessioned | 2013-03-21T11:55:32Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2010-03-29 | en_GB |
dc.description.abstract | This thesis is in two parts. The first part considers a theoretical relationship between the natural variability of a stochastic model and its response to a small
change in forcing. Over a large enough scale, both the real climate and a climate
model are characterised as stochastic dynamical systems. The dynamics of the
systems are encoded in the probabilities that the systems move from one state
into another. When the systems’ states are discretised and listed, then transition
matrices of all these transition probabilities may be formed. The responses of the
systems to a small change in forcing are expanded in terms of the eigenfunctions
and eigenvalues of the Fokker-Planck equations governing the systems’ transition
densities, which may be estimated from the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the
transition matrices. Smoothing the data with a Gaussian kernel improves the estimate of the eigenfunctions, but not the eigenvalues. The significance of differences
in two systems’ eigenvalues and eigenfunctions is considered. Three time series from
HadCM3 are compared with corresponding series from ERA-40 and the eigenvalues
derived from the three pairs of series differ significantly.
The second part analyses a model of the coupled climate-economic system,
which suggests that the pace of economic growth needs to be reduced and the
resilience to climate change needs to be increased in order to avoid a collapse
of the human economy. The model condenses the climate-economic system into
just three variables: a measure of human wealth, the associated accumulation of
greenhouse gases, and the consequent level of global warming. Global warming
is assumed to dictate the pace of economic growth. Depending on the sensitivity
of economic growth to global warming, the model climate-economy system either
reaches an equilibrium or oscillates in century-scale booms and busts. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Resources Council.
Met Office | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NER/S/U/2005/13611. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | PB/B4185 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10036/115194 | en_GB |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | University of Exeter | en_GB |
dc.subject | Fokker-Planck equation | en_GB |
dc.subject | climate model | en_GB |
dc.subject | Natural variability | en_GB |
dc.subject | kernel density estimation | en_GB |
dc.subject | Climate change | en_GB |
dc.subject | Economic growth | en_GB |
dc.subject | feedback | en_GB |
dc.subject | instability | en_GB |
dc.title | Relating forced climate change to natural variability and emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system | en_GB |
dc.type | Thesis or dissertation | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2010-11-09T18:40:27Z | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2011-01-25T17:28:48Z | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2013-03-21T11:55:32Z | |
dc.contributor.advisor | Thuburn, John | en_GB |
dc.contributor.advisor | Gregory, Jonathan | en_GB |
dc.contributor.advisor | Townley, Stuart | en_GB |
dc.publisher.department | Mathematics | en_GB |
dc.type.degreetitle | PhD in Mathematics | en_GB |
dc.type.qualificationlevel | Doctoral | en_GB |
dc.type.qualificationname | PhD | en_GB |