| dc.description.abstract | This study explores the effects of climate change on UK defence and security
Temperatures have been rising across the globe since the 1950s.1
This trend is expected to continue and
temperatures are predicted to increase by 2.3–3.5°C by 2100, despite the 2016 Paris Agreement
commitment to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
2
Floods, heavy rainfall, droughts, heatwaves,
storms, hurricanes and other extreme weather events are also likely to become more frequent in the future.3
In the UK, flooding is expected to be one of the most pressing climate change risks to people, communities
and buildings over the next five years,4
and rising temperatures could also induce heat-related deaths and
the overheating of military installations, homes, hospitals, care homes, offices, schools and prisons.5
In this context, there is growing recognition that climate change may aggravate existing threats to
international peace and security. The UN Security Council, for example, acknowledges climate change as
one of the most urgent challenges to the maintenance of international security. Since 2019 the US, French
and New Zealand defence departments have each published reports on the impacts of, and links between,
defence and climate change. DCDC’s 2018 Global Strategic Trends – The Future Starts Today (GST6)
similarly highlights a wide range of implications of climate change on defence and security. Building on this
work, the present study offers fresh insights into the defence implications of climate change in the UK
context, as well as corresponding recommendations for the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD).
This Global Strategic Partnership (GSP) study was commissioned by the UK MOD to inform the ongoing
development of the MOD’s climate change strategy. Its overarching objectives are to identify the strategic
implications of climate change for MOD activities out to 2035, and to support the development of an
approach for assessing and responding to these implications.
In support of these objectives, this report has two research purposes:
1. Developing a conceptual framework to assist decision makers in mapping and understanding a
broad range of potential implications of climate change for the MOD’s activities.
2. Providing strategies for risk mitigation and adaptation in response to strategic implications of
climate change identified through a literature review and research interviews.
To deliver the study objectives, the study team undertook a review of publicly available literature, conducted
12 research interviews, and delivered four analysis workshops. | en_GB |
