Hot stuff: Research and policy principles for heat decarbonisation through smart electrification

Abstract

There is a need for major greenhouse gas emission reductions from heating in order to meet global decarbonisation goals. Electricity is expected to meet much of the heat demand currently provided by fossil fuels in the future and heat pumps may have an important role. This electrification transformation is not without challenges. Through a detailed narrative review alongside expert elicitation, we propose four principles for heat decarbonisation via electrification: putting energy efficiency first, valuing heat as a flexible load, understanding the emission impacts of heat electrification and designing electricity tariffs to reward flexibility. As a route to heat decarbonisation, when combined, these principles can offer significant consumer and carbon reduction benefits. In the short term these principles can encourage the smooth integration of heat electrification and in the longer term these principles are expected to reduce the scale of required infrastructural expansion. We propose a number of policy mechanisms which can be used to support these principles including (building) regulation, financial support, carbon standards, energy efficiency obligations and pricing.