The Nile System Dynamics Model for Water-Food-Energy Nexus Assessment

Abstract

The Nile River is considered one of the most complex rivers in the world because of its transboundary nature and its significance for riparian countries. Currently, the basin experiences challenges stemming from a rapid population increase and the prospect of a significant economic growth, which in turn have sparked development plans aimed at meeting the growing demand for water, energy, and food. A System Dynamics approach provides a unique framework to integrate the physical system and the socio-economic drivers with the ability to capture the interaction and feedback processes between different system components. A water resources model for the entire Nile basin using the System Dynamics approach was developed as a first step. The model results for the flows at gauge locations showed a good agreement with the historical flows measurements, which reflects the SDM ability to capture the dynamic behaviour of the river and reproduce the patterns and trends of the historical flows. A description of the model development process is presented along with simulation results at the key hydrological sites in the basin. The potential to integrate the developed model with food, energy and socio-economic drivers in the basin is provided.