The Nile Water, Food and Energy Nexus - A system dynamics model

Abstract

Water, Food and Energy (WFE) are inextricably linked and the action in one sector would not only affect that sector but could have significant impacts on the other sectors. The WFE Nexus is challenging in transboundary rivers. Due to rapid population and economic growth in the riparian countries, each riparian country plans to utilize its own resources to meet the growing demands for WFE. This might boost cooperation or increase the potential conflict among the riparian countries, that makes the Nexus is a suitable approach for studying the WFE in a transboundary river like the Nile basin in the context of the Nexus approach. A System Dynamics model was built for the entire Nile River to investigate the WFE conditions in the basin. The model was tested for sensitivity to determine the most sensitive model parameters. Moreover, the developed model will be used to investigate the future of the WFE in the basin through stochastic simulations. Different filling policies of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the dam operation after the filling process and their implications on the WFE on the basin will be assessed in the context of the WFE Nexus.