Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink

Abstract

The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth System Models used for future climate change projections and they are not considered in Integrated Assessment Models used in impact and mitigation studies. Using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps among the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modeling frameworks. Given the importance of peatlands’ contribution to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland-carbon-climate nexus.