Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Kurganskiy, A; Creer, S; De Vere, N; et al.Griffith, GW; Osborne, NJ; Wheeler, BW; McInnes, RN; Clewlow, Y; Barber, A; Brennan, GL; Hanlon, HM; Hegarty, M; Potter, C; Rowney, F; Adams-Groom, B; Petch, GM; Pashley, CH; Satchwell, J; De Weger, LA; Rasmussen, K; Oliver, G; Sindt, C; Bruffaerts, N; Skjøth, CA
Date: 26 March 2021
Journal
Science Advances
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Publisher DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658
Related links
https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/global-surface-summary-of-the-day-gsod
Abstract
Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How ...
Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.
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© 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.