Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Population-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example
dc.contributor.author | Shiri, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Evans, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Talarico, CA | |
dc.contributor.author | Morgan, AR | |
dc.contributor.author | Mussad, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Buck, PO | |
dc.contributor.author | McEwan, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Strain, WD | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-11-29T14:28:03Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-10-15 | |
dc.date.updated | 2021-11-29T13:49:17Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Debate persists around the risk-benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against COVID-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups. In this study, we present a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the COVID-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example. The base case model demonstrates significant increases in COVID-19 disease burden in the UK following a relaxation of restrictions, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). Including adolescents and children in the vaccination program could reduce overall COVID-related mortality by 57%, and reduce cases of long COVID by 75%. This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, and subsequent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Moderna, Inc. | en_GB |
dc.format.extent | 1180- | |
dc.format.medium | Electronic | |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 9 (10), article 1180 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9101180 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/127981 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-6826-418X (Strain, William David) | |
dc.identifier | ScopusID: 56602727900 | 9244119500 (Strain, William David) | |
dc.identifier | ResearcherID: Y-9858-2019 (Strain, William David) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | MDPI | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34696288 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). | en_GB |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | en_GB |
dc.subject | SARS-CoV-2 | en_GB |
dc.subject | adolescent | en_GB |
dc.subject | coronavirus | en_GB |
dc.subject | disease transmission model | en_GB |
dc.subject | vaccination | en_GB |
dc.title | Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Population-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2021-11-29T14:28:03Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2076-393X | |
exeter.article-number | ARTN 1180 | |
exeter.place-of-publication | Switzerland | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from MDPI via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Availability Statement: The datasets analyzed during the current study were sourced from and are available in the original publications referenced. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2076-393X | |
dc.identifier.journal | Vaccines | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Vaccines (Basel), 9(10) | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2021-10-04 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2021-10-15 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2021-11-29T14:11:30Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2021-11-29T14:28:19Z | |
refterms.panel | A | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2021-10-15 |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).