Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
dc.contributor.author | Swallow, B | |
dc.contributor.author | Birrell, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Blake, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Burgman, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Challenor, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Coffeng, LE | |
dc.contributor.author | Dawid, P | |
dc.contributor.author | De Angelis, D | |
dc.contributor.author | Goldstein, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Hemming, V | |
dc.contributor.author | Marion, G | |
dc.contributor.author | McKinley, TJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Overton, CE | |
dc.contributor.author | Panovska-Griffiths, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Pellis, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Probert, W | |
dc.contributor.author | Shea, K | |
dc.contributor.author | Villela, D | |
dc.contributor.author | Vernon, I | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-02-24T14:13:38Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022-02-10 | |
dc.date.updated | 2022-02-24T13:42:20Z | |
dc.description.abstract | The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Medical Research Council (MRC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | UK Health Security Agency | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | UK Department of Health and Social Care | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | ZonMw | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Science Foundation (NSF) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Wellcome Trust | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Royal Society | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Alan Turing Institute | en_GB |
dc.format.extent | 100547- | |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 38, article 100547 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | MC/UU/00002/11 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | EP/R014604/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 10430022010001 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 2028301 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | EP/V051555/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | MR/V038613/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 202562/Z/16/Z | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/128877 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0001-8661-2718 (Challenor, Peter) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-9485-3236 (McKinley, Trevelyan J) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35180542 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). | en_GB |
dc.subject | Expert elicitation | en_GB |
dc.subject | Pandemic modelling | en_GB |
dc.subject | Statistical estimation | en_GB |
dc.subject | Uncertainty quantification | en_GB |
dc.title | Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2022-02-24T14:13:38Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1755-4365 | |
exeter.article-number | 100547 | |
exeter.place-of-publication | Netherlands | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1878-0067 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Epidemics | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Epidemics, 38 | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2022-02-09 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2022-02-10 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2022-02-24T14:07:29Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2022-02-24T14:14:16Z | |
refterms.panel | A | en_GB |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).