The risk of dying in bushfires: A comparative analysis of fatalities and survivors

Abstract

A limitation in disaster risk reduction research is the lack of comparative analysis between those who die and those who survive in the same event. This makes it difficult to determine factors that increase or decrease the risk of dying in a disaster. In this paper, we begin to address this research gap by using published data from the 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires in Victoria, Australia. One set of data comes from a representative postal survey of those who survived the fires, and a second from data on the 172 civilian fatalities in the same fires. The aim is to examine what differences exist between those who died and those who survived the fires. Are there identifiable differences between the two groups, and if so, why might this be – and what does this mean for fire policy and planning? Two major differences were found between the two groups. First, the demography differed between fatalities and survivors: disproportionately more older people (over 50s) died than younger people (under 18s); and men were much more likely to die than women. Second, the behaviour between the two groups differed: most survivors reported carrying out their intended actions, whereas most fatalities did not (or were unable to) carry out their intended actions; and, most fatalities sheltered, while very few survivors did so. There are caveats to this analysis as the datasets were not intended for comparative analysis of this sort. These differences hold important lessons for bushfire policy and planning. The analysis highlights the dangers of sheltering passively within a building or structure, emphasising the importance of communicating this particular bushfire safety message.