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dc.contributor.authorWu, C
dc.contributor.authorSitch, S
dc.contributor.authorHuntingford, C
dc.contributor.authorMercado, LM
dc.contributor.authorVenevsky, S
dc.contributor.authorLasslop, G
dc.contributor.authorArchibald, S
dc.contributor.authorStaver, AC
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-06T13:36:18Z
dc.date.issued2022-05-09
dc.date.updated2022-07-06T13:04:19Z
dc.description.abstractFire is an important climate-driven disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems, also modulated by human ignitions or fire suppression. Changes in fire emissions can feed back on the global carbon cycle, but whether the trajectories of changing fire activity will exacerbate or attenuate climate change is poorly understood. Here, we quantify fire dynamics under historical and future climate and human demography using a coupled global climate–fire–carbon cycle model that emulates 34 individual Earth system models (ESMs). Results are compared with counterfactual worlds, one with a constant preindustrial fire regime and another without fire. Although uncertainty in projected fire effects is large and depends on ESM, socioeconomic trajectory, and emissions scenario, we find that changes in human demography tend to suppress global fire activity, keeping more carbon within terrestrial ecosystems and attenuating warming. Globally, changes in fire have acted to warm climate throughout most of the 20th century. However, recent and predicted future reductions in fire activity may reverse this, enhancing land carbon uptake and corresponding to offsetting ∼5 to 10 y of global CO2 emissions at today’s levels. This potentially reduces warming by up to 0.11 °C by 2100. We show that climate–carbon cycle feedbacks, as caused by changing fire regimes, are most effective at slowing global warming under lower emission scenarios. Our study highlights that ignitions and active and passive fire suppression can be as important in driving future fire regimes as changes in climate, although with some risk of more extreme fires regionally and with implications for other ecosystem functions in fire-dependent ecosystems.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Key R&D Program of Chinaen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Natural Science Foundation of Chinaen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipTsinghua University- Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University Joint Scientific Research Funden_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipSouthern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciencesen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Environment Research Councilen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Environment Research Councilen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Environment Research Councilen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundationen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipNRF Earth Systems Grant .en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipChina Scholarship Councilen_GB
dc.format.extente2101186119-
dc.format.mediumPrint-Electronic
dc.identifier.citationVol. 119, No. 20, e2101186119en_GB
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2101186119
dc.identifier.grantnumber2019YFA0606604en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber31570475en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber20193080033en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber122013100131-9en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberNE/R001812/1en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberNE/J010057/1en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberNE/N017951/1en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber1802453en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber118604en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/130169
dc.identifierORCID: 0000-0003-1821-8561 (Sitch, Stephen)
dc.identifierScopusID: 6603113016 (Sitch, Stephen)
dc.identifierResearcherID: F-8034-2015 (Sitch, Stephen)
dc.identifierORCID: 0000-0003-4069-0838 (Mercado, Lina M)
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciencesen_GB
dc.relation.sourceData Availability All data used to evaluate the conclusions of the paper and generate the figures and tables are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12279404. The python codes to interpret data and prepare the figures are available on request from the corresponding author. We thank the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative BA product (FireCCI), and Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER), CMIP5 database, ILAMB, and other researchers who worked to provide the datasets for this study. Satellite-based GFED4s, GFED4 dataset are accessed from http://www.globalfiredata.org/index.html; FireCCI50 dataset was accessed from https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/fire/. FEER1 dataset is accessed from https://feer.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/emissions/. NCEP Reanalysis data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. The IMOGEN model and the latest version is available from C.H. (contacted on chg@ceh.ac.uk).en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35533276en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12279404en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.globalfiredata.org/index.htmlen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://climate.esa.int/en/projects/fire/en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://feer.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/emissions/en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/en_GB
dc.rights.embargoreasonUnder embargo until 9 November 2022 in compliance with publisher policyen_GB
dc.rights© 2022, National Academy of Sciencesen_GB
dc.subjectcarbon sinken_GB
dc.subjectclimate changeen_GB
dc.subjectclimate–carbon cycle feedbacken_GB
dc.subjectdynamic global vegetation model (DGVM)en_GB
dc.subjectfireen_GB
dc.subjecthuman demographyen_GB
dc.titleReduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptakeen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2022-07-06T13:36:18Z
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424
exeter.place-of-publicationUnited States
dc.descriptionThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this record en_GB
dc.identifier.eissn1091-6490
dc.identifier.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesen_GB
dc.relation.ispartofProc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 119(20)
dc.rights.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserveden_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-03-23
rioxxterms.versionAMen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2022-05-09
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2022-07-06T13:23:53Z
refterms.versionFCDAM
refterms.panelCen_GB
refterms.dateFirstOnline2022-05-09


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