The out-of-this-world hype cycle: Progression towards sustainable terrestrial resource production

Abstract

The out-of-this-world hype cycle describes expectations and realities for extra-terrestrial resource production. Triggered by a technological innovation cluster in communication/automation/transport for the space industries, it inspires visions of prospecting and inter-planetary travel for economic gains. Visionary narratives are founded on (1) techno-futurism, a linear process of capital accumulation based on innovation; (2) techno-optimism, the belief that innovation will solve modern-day challenges without impacting consumption-based lifestyles; and (3) expansion of the resource base for economic development. We use a constructivist approach to scrutinise the opportunities for, and impediments to, off-Earth extraction through economic, political, sociological, legal, humanities, geological and engineering philosophies. Visionaries elevate the terrestrial activity of mining to the extra-terrestrial environment in a fantastical Martianist narrative while a counter-Martianist narrative simplifies extra-terrestrial prospecting and extractive challenges. The infancy of prospecting and limited engagement with the realities of terrestrial mining practice suggest that off-Earth extraction is a distant prospect. We conclude that expanding industrial activity by outsourcing of raw materials production is inhibited by the Terrestrial actor. Debates about out-of-this-world hype, the limiting factors to access raw materials beyond the Earth, and an immature (high-risk) safety culture for off-Earth extraction, reveal the imperative for multi-actor transformative behavioural change.