Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age
dc.contributor.author | Arellano-Nava, B | |
dc.contributor.author | Halloran, PR | |
dc.contributor.author | Boulton, CA | |
dc.contributor.author | Scourse, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Butler, PG | |
dc.contributor.author | Reynolds, DJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Lenton, TM | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-08-30T08:27:07Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022-08-25 | |
dc.date.updated | 2022-08-26T16:09:59Z | |
dc.description.abstract | The cooling transition into the Little Ice Age was the last notable shift in the climate system prior to anthropogenic global warming. It is hypothesised that sea-ice to ocean feedbacks sustained an initial cooling into the Little Ice Age by weakening the subpolar gyre circulation; a system that has been proposed to exhibit bistability. Empirical evidence for bistability within this transition has however been lacking. Using statistical indicators of resilience in three annually-resolved bivalve proxy records from the North Icelandic shelf, we show that the subpolar North Atlantic climate system destabilised during two episodes prior to the Little Ice Age. This loss of resilience indicates reduced attraction to one stable state, and a system vulnerable to an abrupt transition. The two episodes preceded wider subpolar North Atlantic change, consistent with subpolar gyre destabilisation and the approach of a tipping point, potentially heralding the transition to Little Ice Age conditions. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union Horizon 2020 | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Leverhulme Trust | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 13, article 5008 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32653-x | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 820989 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/N001435/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | RPG-2018-046 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 820970 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 856488 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/130582 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-9227-0678 (Halloran, Paul R) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0001-7836-9391 (Boulton, Chris A) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-8645-7196 (Reynolds, David J) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-6725-7498 (Lenton, Timothy M) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/22950 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/14609 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://zenodo.org/record/6856039 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://github.com/BeatrizArellano/regimeshifts | en_GB |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dc.title | Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2022-08-30T08:27:07Z | |
exeter.article-number | 5008 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from nature Research via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data availability: The δ18O record24 used in this study was retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/20448. The δ13C series25 was accessed in January 2021 at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/22950. The Growth Index record23 is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/14609. | en_GB |
dc.description | Code availability: All python code used for the analyses is available on the repositories: https://zenodo.org/record/685603963 and https://github.com/BeatrizArellano/regimeshifts. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2041-1723 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Nature Communications | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Nature Communications, 13(1) | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2022-08-09 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2022-08-25 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2022-08-30T08:23:51Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2022-08-30T08:27:44Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2022-08-25 |
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