Epidemiological model based periodic intervention policies for COVID-19 mitigation in the United Kingdom

Abstract

As the UK, together with numerous countries in the world, moves towards a new phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a need to be able to predict trends in sufficient time to limit the pressure faced by the National Health Service (NHS) and maintain low hospitalisation levels. In this study, we explore the use of an epidemiological compartmental model to devise a periodic adaptive suppression/intervention policy to alleviate the pressure on the NHS. The proposed model facilitates the understanding of the progression of the specific stages of COVID-19 in communities in the UK including: the susceptible population, the infected population, the hospitalised population, the recovered population, the deceased population, and the vaccinated population. We identify the parameters of the model by relying on past data within the period from 1 October 2020 to 1 June 2021. We use the total number of hospitalised patients and the fraction of those infected who are being admitted to hospital to develop adaptive policies: these modulate the recommended level of social restriction measures and realisable vaccination target adjustments. The analysis over the period 1 October 2020 to 1 June 2021 demonstrates our periodic adaptive policies have the potential to reduce the hospitalisation by 58% on average per month. In a further prospective analysis over the period August 2021 to May 2022, we analyse several future scenarios, characterised by the relaxation of restrictions, the vaccination ineffectiveness and the gradual decay of the vaccination-induced immunity within the population. In addition, we simulate the surge of plausible variants characterised by an higher transmission rate. In such scenarios, we show that our periodic intervention is effective and able to maintain the hospitalisation rate to a manageable level.