Unraveling trade‐offs among reforestation, urbanization and food security in the South China Karst Region: How can a hinterland province achieve SDGs?

Abstract

Whether the world can achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) largely depends on the ability of less-developed areas to cope with multiple socio-economic changes. The challenges that hinterland areas would face during the realization of SDGs has not yet received enough attentions. In this study, a context-based assessment of regional food balances was conducted, considering key challenges related to socio-economic development as well as land use competition under the framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the implementation of reforestation. We examined one of the poorest hinterland provinces in China as a case study, projecting its food deficit and exploring the potential threats to and opportunities for SDG realization by 2030, including population growth, urbanization, urban land expansion and reforestation. The projections revealed a crop deficit of 4.9-9.8 million tonnes, corresponding to the food demands of 10.2-20.6 million people. Approximately 76-81% of this deficit was expected to be caused by increased food demand, rather than reforestation policies. Therefore, for this less-developed area with low agricultural productivity and large groups of vulnerable people, population growth and urbanization are likely to result in demands for food that cannot be met locally. In addition, large-scale reforestation projects, while enhancing a number of key ecosystem services, will increase the local food deficit by promoting the abandonment of cropland. This will result in greater reliance on food imports, with potential impacts on SDG realization in other regions. These findings highlight the need for integrated governance across multiple scales to ensure hinterland sustainability.