The climate change, conflict and migration nexus: A holistic view

Abstract

Current discourse relating to climate change, conflict, migration, and the causal links thereof, is polarised. It is widely acknowledged that climate change will have a detrimental effect on quality of life, and that this impact will not be homogeneous across the globe. However, proposed causal links between climate change, conflict and migration remain contentious. This paper argues that to better grasp the implications of climate change on global society and security, it is vital to develop a more systemic understanding of the interplay between climate change, conflict, and migration. Whilst this nexus is already recognised, studies to date have tended to be qualitative and statistical evidence of multivariate causality has been lacking. Where quantitative analysis is present, it has typically been limited to two components at a time; few studies have addressed the nexus holistically, making research conclusions sometimes difficult to reconcile. Hence, by reviewing literature from a broad range of sources, this paper suggests a suite of systemic and quantitative approaches with which to address the climate change-conflict-migration (CCM) nexus. This review critically assesses the existing research approaches employed across a range of examples and suggests how leveraging the power of ‘big data’ and modelling the nexus as a complex system encapsulating both human and environmental drivers could offer new insights, especially for those looking to explore the increasing number of “what if” scenarios relating to climate and human dynamics.