| dc.description.abstract | In urban and agricultural catchments the Impact of Land-Use Change on Hydrological
Regimes, in particular droughts and flooding, is a growing worldwide phenomenon,
especially in the face of climate change. However, where previous research highlights
that the inclusion of stakeholders through public participation is key to addressing
water challenges, many land use change studies fail to combine environmental and
social sciences together. In this context, this thesis aims to use public participation as
a cornerstone to model and predict changes in Land Use and Hydrological regimes
across past, present and future scenarios for two agricultural catchments, the Mun
river basin, Thailand and Angas Bremer, Adelaide. The Mun, a tributary to the Mekong
River, is the largest basin in northeast Thailand, (53,800km2
), and an important
agricultural region, especially for rice production. Whereas Angas Bremer, in South
Australia, is a small catchment (250 km2
) at the end of the Murray-Darling Basin,
whose economy is primarily supported by a premium wine-grape industry. Both
regions in the past have suffered from Drought and Flooding and are at risk from
increasing frequency and severity of these hazards.
As part of this research, two novel land use changes models have been used, the
future land use simulation (FLUS) and the patch-generating land use simulation
(PLUS). Results show that both models worked successfully and achieved high
simulation KHAT accuracies. Future scenarios developed were primarily agricultural
based and were developed with inputs from local stakeholders. The recommendations
for sustainable land and water management were better tailored to meet the needs of
stakeholders because of the public participation used within the modelling and the
increased understanding of the environmental and social drivers within each
catchment.
Next, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis – Geographical Information Systems (MCDA GIS) tool was developed to model flood hazard and drought risk within the Mun River
basin on an annual and seasonal basis (wet, cool and hot) for the present and near
future period (2021-2050). Criteria were ranked by members of government bodies,
international organisation and leading academics and given a percentage weighting.
Analysis rankings from experts found that climatic factors were the most significant.
3
Finally this MCDA-GIS methodology was applied to Nature Based Solutions (NBS) to
assess how their implementation through changing land use (a/reforestation, wetland
development and crop changing) could mitigate the effects of changing hydrological
regimes in the future. Though the research presents a grim outlook on future floods
and droughts in the basin, if NBS in the form of a/reforestation, increased wetland
areas or changing crop types were readily applied they would provide environmental,
social and economic benefits and mitigate the effects of droughts and floods in the
region.
To conclude, this thesis determines that the use of a social-hydrology approach is an
important aspect to LUC modelling, linking stakeholders to groundwater, flooding and
drought management. The methodology developed and results obtained can be used
as a guide for researchers, policy makers and local irrigators/farmers to help
understand how future land use impacts hydrological regimes and the range of
limitations that currently exist in this line of research. | en_GB |
