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Safe and just Earth system boundaries

dc.contributor.authorRockström, J
dc.contributor.authorGupta, J
dc.contributor.authorQin, D
dc.contributor.authorLade, SJ
dc.contributor.authorAbrams, JF
dc.contributor.authorAndersen, LS
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong McKay, DI
dc.contributor.authorBai, X
dc.contributor.authorBala, G
dc.contributor.authorBunn, SE
dc.contributor.authorCiobanu, D
dc.contributor.authorDeClerck, F
dc.contributor.authorEbi, K
dc.contributor.authorGifford, L
dc.contributor.authorGordon, C
dc.contributor.authorHasan, S
dc.contributor.authorKanie, N
dc.contributor.authorLenton, TM
dc.contributor.authorLoriani, S
dc.contributor.authorLiverman, DM
dc.contributor.authorMohamed, A
dc.contributor.authorNakicenovic, N
dc.contributor.authorObura, D
dc.contributor.authorOspina, D
dc.contributor.authorProdani, K
dc.contributor.authorRammelt, C
dc.contributor.authorSakschewski, B
dc.contributor.authorScholtens, J
dc.contributor.authorStewart-Koster, B
dc.contributor.authorTharammal, T
dc.contributor.authorvan Vuuren, D
dc.contributor.authorVerburg, PH
dc.contributor.authorWinkelmann, R
dc.contributor.authorZimm, C
dc.contributor.authorBennett, EM
dc.contributor.authorBringezu, S
dc.contributor.authorBroadgate, W
dc.contributor.authorGreen, PA
dc.contributor.authorHuang, L
dc.contributor.authorJacobson, L
dc.contributor.authorNdehedehe, C
dc.contributor.authorPedde, S
dc.contributor.authorRocha, J
dc.contributor.authorScheffer, M
dc.contributor.authorSchulte-Uebbing, L
dc.contributor.authorde Vries, W
dc.contributor.authorXiao, C
dc.contributor.authorXu, C
dc.contributor.authorXu, X
dc.contributor.authorZafra-Calvo, N
dc.contributor.authorZhang, X
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-22T08:19:21Z
dc.date.issued2023-05-31
dc.date.updated2023-06-21T12:35:54Z
dc.description.abstractThe stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1-3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipStockholm Universityen_GB
dc.identifier.citationPublished online 31 May 2023en_GB
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/133466
dc.identifierORCID: 0000-0003-0411-8519 (Abrams, Jesse F)
dc.identifierORCID: 0000-0002-0020-7461 (Armstrong McKay, David I)
dc.identifierORCID: 0000-0002-6725-7498 (Lenton, Timothy M)
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherNature Researchen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37258676en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22047263.v2en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20079200.v2en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6395016en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:d9676f6b-abba-48fd-8d94-cc8c0dc546a2en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5234594en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://dataportaal.pbl.nl/downloads/IMAGE/GNMen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://esa-worldcover.org/enen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://www2.csr.utexas.edu/grace/RL06_mascons.htmlen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datacollection/GLDAS_NOAH025_3H_2.1.htmlen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22047263.v2en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20079200.v2en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7636716en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7674802en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://figshare.com/articles/software/integrity_analysis/22232749/2en_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7710540en_GB
dc.rights© 2023, The Author(s). Creative Commons: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.en_GB
dc.subjectBiodiversityen_GB
dc.subjectClimate and Earth system modellingen_GB
dc.subjectElement cyclesen_GB
dc.subjectEnvironmental impacten_GB
dc.subjectHydrologyen_GB
dc.titleSafe and just Earth system boundariesen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2023-06-22T08:19:21Z
dc.identifier.issn0028-0836
exeter.place-of-publicationEngland
dc.descriptionThis is the final version. Available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record. en_GB
dc.descriptionData availability The data supporting Figs. 2 and 3 are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22047263.v2 and https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20079200.v2, respectively. We rely on other published datasets for the climate boundary16, N boundary72 (model files are at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6395016), phosphorus73,74 (scenario breakdowns are at https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:d9676f6b-abba-48fd-8d94-cc8c0dc546a2, and a summary of agricultural sustainability indicators is at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5234594), current N surpluses129,130 (the repository at https://dataportaal.pbl.nl/downloads/IMAGE/GNM) with the critical N surplus limit72 subtracted, and estimated subglobal P concentration in runoff based on estimated P load to freshwater131 and local runoff data132,133. Current functional integrity is calculated from the European Space Agency WorldCover 10-metre-resolution land cover map (https://esa-worldcover.org/en). The safe boundary and current state for groundwater are derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (http://www2.csr.utexas.edu/grace/RL06_mascons.html) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datacollection/GLDAS_NOAH025_3H_2.1.html). More information is available in ‘Code availability’ and Supplementary Methods. Source data for Fig. 2 are provided with this paper.en_GB
dc.descriptionCode availability: The code used to produce Figs. 2 and 3 are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22047263.v2 and https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20079200.v2, respectively. The code used to make the nutrient Earth system boundary layers in Fig. 3 is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7636716. The code used to make the surface water layer in Fig. 3 and derive the subglobal Earth system boundaries for surface water is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7674802. The code to estimate current functional integrity is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/integrity_analysis/22232749/2. The code to derive the groundwater layer in Fig. 3 and derive the total annual groundwater recharge is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7710540.en_GB
dc.identifier.eissn1476-4687
dc.identifier.journalNatureen_GB
dc.relation.ispartofNature
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2023-04-14
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2023-05-31
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2023-06-22T08:15:57Z
refterms.versionFCDVoR
refterms.dateFOA2023-06-22T08:19:25Z
refterms.panelCen_GB
refterms.dateFirstOnline2023-05-31


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© 2023, The Author(s). Creative Commons: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © 2023, The Author(s). Creative Commons: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.