Identifying relapse predictors in individual participant data with decision trees
dc.contributor.author | Böttcher, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Breedvelt, JJF | |
dc.contributor.author | Warren, FC | |
dc.contributor.author | Segal, Z | |
dc.contributor.author | Kuyken, W | |
dc.contributor.author | Bockting, CLH | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-09-28T08:26:35Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-11-13 | |
dc.date.updated | 2023-09-27T18:33:32Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Background: Depression is a highly common and recurrent condition. Predicting who is at most risk of relapse or recurrence can inform clinical practice. Applying machine-learning methods to Individual Participant Data (IPD) can be promising to improve the accuracy of risk predictions. Methods: Individual data of four Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) evaluating an tidepressant treatment compared to psychological interventions with tapering (N = 714) were used to identify predictors of relapse and/or recurrence. Ten baseline predictors were assessed. Decision trees with and without gradient boosting were applied. To study the robust ness of decision-tree classifications, we also performed a complementary logistic regression analysis. Results: The combination of age, age of onset of depression, and depression severity sig nificantly enhances the prediction of relapse risk when compared to classifiers solely based on depression severity. The studied decision trees can (i) identify relapse patients at intake with an accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of about 55% (without gradient boosting) and 58% (with gradient boosting), and (ii) slightly outperform classifiers that are based on logistic regression. Conclusions: Decision tree classifiers based on multiple–rather than single–risk indicators may be useful for developing treatment stratification strategies. These classification models have the potential to contribute to the development of methods aimed at effectively prioritizing treatment for those individuals who require it the most. Our results also underline the existing gaps in understanding how to accurately predict depressive relapse. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | ARO | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 23, article 835 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1186/s12888-023-05214-9 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | W911NF-23-1-0129 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/134104 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-3833-0182 (Warren, Fiona) | |
dc.publisher | BMC | en_GB |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2023. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. | |
dc.subject | depression | en_GB |
dc.subject | relapse | en_GB |
dc.subject | individual participant data | en_GB |
dc.subject | meta analysis | en_GB |
dc.subject | machine learning | en_GB |
dc.subject | decision tree | en_GB |
dc.subject | logistic regression | en_GB |
dc.subject | gradient boosting | en_GB |
dc.title | Identifying relapse predictors in individual participant data with decision trees | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2023-09-28T08:26:35Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1471-244X | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from BMC via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Availability of data and material. The datasets generated and/or analysed during the current study are not publicly available due to patient consent restrictions but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | BMC Psychiatry | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2023-09-22 | |
dcterms.dateSubmitted | 2022-11-10 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2023-09-22 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2023-09-27T18:33:36Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2023-11-14T14:09:03Z | |
refterms.panel | A | en_GB |
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