The changing relationship between Cholera and interannual climate variables in Kolkata over the past century
dc.contributor.author | Shackleton, D | |
dc.contributor.author | Memon, FA | |
dc.contributor.author | Chen, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Dutta, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Kanungo, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Deb, A | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-11-24T12:03:41Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-09-13 | |
dc.date.updated | 2023-11-23T20:16:09Z | |
dc.description.abstract | BACKGROUND: In the Bengal Delta, research has shown that climate and cholera are linked. One demonstration of this is the relationship between interannual ocean-atmospheric oscillations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). What remains unclear in the present literature is the nature of this relationship in the specific context of Kolkata, and how this relationship may have changed over time. RESULTS: In this study, we analyse the changing relationship between ENSO and IOD with cholera in Kolkata over recent (1999-2019) and historical (1897-1941) time intervals. Wavelet coherence analysis revealed significant non-stationary association at 2-4 year and 4-8 year periods between cholera and both interannual timeseries during both time intervals. However, coherence was notably weakened in the recent interval, particularly with regards to ENSO, a result supported by a complementary SARIMA analysis. Similar coherence patterns with temperature indicate it could be an important mediating factor in the relationship between cholera and oscillating climate phenomena in Kolkata. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals a shifting relationship between cholera and climate variables (ENSO and IOD) in Kolkata, suggesting a decoupling between environmental influences and cholera transmission in recent years. Our results therefore do not suggest that an intensification of ENSO is likely to significantly influence cholera in the region. We also find that the relationship between cholera and interannual climate variables is distinct to Kolkata, highlighting the spatial heterogeneity of the climate-cholera relationship even within the Bengal Delta. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) | en_GB |
dc.format.extent | 42- | |
dc.format.medium | Electronic | |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 15, article 42 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13099-023-00565-w | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | EP/L016214/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/134625 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-0779-083X (Memon, Fayyaz Ali) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0003-3708-3332 (Chen, Albert) | |
dc.identifier | ScopusID: 57193002441 (Chen, Albert) | |
dc.identifier | ResearcherID: E-2735-2010 (Chen, Albert) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | BMC | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Nino34/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://github.com/DebbieShack/Bengal_cholera_data | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37704999 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2023. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. | en_GB |
dc.subject | Cholera | en_GB |
dc.subject | Climate | en_GB |
dc.subject | ENSO | en_GB |
dc.subject | IOD | en_GB |
dc.subject | Wavelet Analysis | en_GB |
dc.title | The changing relationship between Cholera and interannual climate variables in Kolkata over the past century | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2023-11-24T12:03:41Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1757-4749 | |
exeter.article-number | 42 | |
exeter.place-of-publication | England | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from BMC via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data Availability: Monthly SST data for the Nino 3.4 region are available from the HadISST dataset at https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Nino34/. Indian Ocean SST data are available from the NOAA DMI dataset https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/. The modern epidemiological data is the property of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and is not publicly available due to political, privacy and ethical concerns. Historical dataset is publicly available, and can be accessed in digitized from here: https://github.com/DebbieShack/Bengal_cholera_data. Please contact the corresponding author to request the R code files. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1757-4749 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Gut Pathogens | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Gut Pathog, 15(1) | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2023-08-01 | |
dc.rights.license | CC BY | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2023-09-13 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2023-11-24T12:02:27Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2023-11-24T12:03:46Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2023-09-13 |
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need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The
Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available
in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.