Integrated assessment of flood and drought hazards for current and future climate in a tributary of the Mekong river basin

Abstract

Projecting flood and drought characteristics under climate change is important to management plans and enhancement of the resiliency of the society. However, studies that provide the integration of flood–drought hazard events is scarce. This study assessed the flood and drought hazards for future climate in the Mun River basin. A non-modelling approach is used to assess the flood hazard, while a multi-variate approach is used for the drought hazard. The results suggest that areas under ‘high’ and ‘very high’ drought hazard levels will increase from 27 and 4% during the baseline period to 43 and 37%, during the near-future period. Similarly, an increase in the ‘high’ and ‘very high’ flood hazard levels from 11 and 22% during the baseline period to 16 and 24% during the near-future period is projected. When both hazards are considered together, the total hazard is projected to increase by 155% in the near-future period. 76% of the catchment during the near-future period will have a combined hazard level from ‘medium’ to ‘very high’ compared to the 30% during the baseline period. The research presents a grim outlook on future floods and droughts in the basin, with the areas of Nakhon Ratchasima, Rio Et and Si Sa Ket provinces particularly at risk from both hydro-meteorological hazards.