Towards a computational tool for the management of Natural Capital

Abstract

The strive toward the equitable and sustainable use of land to satisfy our material, cultural and fundamental needs is a defining challenge of our time. Computational tools enable and assist the planning and assessment of policy decisions for decision-makers who look to meet these needs. One such need is the transition to a low-carbon economy while continuing to meet today’s social, economic and environmental priorities for society whilst being mindful of the needs of future generations. Ecosystem services encompass the provisions humans attain from natural assets, and the global stock of natural resources (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). In its bid to transition to a low-carbon economy, Cornwall Council published a comprehensive policy plan through its Environmental Growth Strategy (Cornwall Council, 2016). Within this strategy, Cornwall Council identified the need for an environmental management system to support environmental growth, whilst incorporating the construction of 52,500 new homes by 2030. These new housing developments will have a lasting effect on the hydrological characteristic behaviour of Cornish river basins. This thesis presents a proof of concept proposal to apply well- established practices and learnings from the Facilities Management industry to enable holistic management of a portfolio of natural assets. This prototype study demonstrates how one can begin to consider the wider consequences of policy decisions through a data dashboard for use by public and private officials. Beneath this dashboard, a computational tool could calculate multiple plausible tailored scenarios with its results presented to the dashboard. This thesis introduces a computational tool in the form of a hydrological model. The construction of this computational tool draws upon the current mathematical literature. The 2017 flooding event in Coverack, Cornwall (Falmouth Packet Website, 2017), is utilised as a case study. Such a tool would prove useful in the mitigation of potential, unintended, flooding events as new housing projects commence. The key out- come of this work highlights the opportunity to democratise state-of-the-art mathematical and environmental models through a larger environmental management system tool. In constructing this hydrological tool, a starting point for this larger management tool, a novel modelling technique is developed that significantly reduces the time it takes for the results to compute, whilst maintaining an accurate output.