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Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil

dc.contributor.authorPinotti, F
dc.contributor.authorGiovanetti, M
dc.contributor.authorde Lima, MM
dc.contributor.authorde Cerqueira, EM
dc.contributor.authorAlcantara, LCJ
dc.contributor.authorGupta, S
dc.contributor.authorRecker, M
dc.contributor.authorLourenço, J
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-24T13:35:00Z
dc.date.issued2024-01-20
dc.date.updated2024-01-24T13:02:16Z
dc.description.abstractn 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipUK Research and Innovationen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipHuman Frontiers Science Programmeen_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipPON ‘Ricerca e Innovazione’ 2014-2020en_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 15, No. 1, article 632en_GB
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-44799-x
dc.identifier.grantnumberBB/S011269/1en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumberRGP018/2023en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/135111
dc.identifierORCID: 0000-0001-9489-1315 (Recker, Mario)
dc.identifierScopusID: 6603456883 (Recker, Mario)
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherNature Researchen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://datasus.saude.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/doencas-e-agravos-de-notificacao-2001-a-2006-sinanen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://datasus.saude.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/doencas-e-agravos-de-notificacao-de-2007-em-diante-sinanen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://datasus.saude.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/morbidade-hospitalar-do-sus-sih-susen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://datasus.saude.gov.br/populacao-residenteen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://www.feiradesantana.ba.gov.br/servicos.asp?id=14&link=sms/vigilancia_saude/vigilancia_epidemiologica.aspen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttps://github.com/francescopinotti92/dengue_and_zika_brazilen_GB
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.en_GB
dc.titleShifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazilen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2024-01-24T13:35:00Z
exeter.article-number632
dc.descriptionThis is the final version. Available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record. en_GB
dc.descriptionData availability: Counts of probable dengue virus cases and hospitalizations for individual states and the city of Salvador, Bahia, were obtained from the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN, https://datasus.saude.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/doencas-e-agravos-de-notificacao-2001-a-2006-sinan and https://datasus.saude.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/doencas-e-agravos-de-notificacao-de-2007-em-diante-sinan) and Unified Health System (SUS) through the DATASUS (https://datasus.saude.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/morbidade-hospitalar-do-sus-sih-sus). Population size estimates were obtained from DATASUS (https://datasus.saude.gov.br/populacao-residente). Weekly DENV and ZIKV notified cases (clinically suspected and confirmed) in the Bahian city of Feira de Santana were obtained directly from the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde of the city (https://www.feiradesantana.ba.gov.br/servicos.asp?id=14&link=sms/vigilancia_saude/vigilancia_epidemiologica.asp). All relevant data used in Figs. 1–3 and Supplementary Fig. 1-8,14,16 are available in the GitHub repository https://github.com/francescopinotti92/dengue_and_zika_brazil.en_GB
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723
dc.identifier.journalNature Communicationsen_GB
dc.relation.ispartofNature Communications, 15(1)
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_GB
dcterms.dateAccepted2024-01-03
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_GB
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2024-01-20
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_GB
refterms.dateFCD2024-01-24T13:31:16Z
refterms.versionFCDVoR
refterms.dateFOA2024-01-24T13:35:05Z
refterms.panelAen_GB
refterms.dateFirstOnline2024-01-20


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© The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.