Political agendas and policy alternatives for offshore wind energy in the Republic of Ireland 1999 – 2020: using process tracing and qualitative comparative analysis to test the Multiple Streams Framework hypothesis

Abstract

Offshore wind energy (OFW) may be a key component to net-zero power systems for many jurisdictions across the world. However, detailed study of why and how various actors in and around governments select it as an object of political effort and narrow down policy alternatives for its deployment is lacking. The Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) provides a general hypothesis that could explain how OFW moves on to (and off of) political agendas. This study uses a novel mixed methods approach, including process tracing and fussy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), to test the MSF hypothesis and to discover causal mechanisms and configurations of necessary and/or sufficient conditions that move the attention of people in and around government towards (or away from) supporting the commercial deployment of OFW. For this purpose it draws on several cases from the Republic of Ireland from 1999 – 2020.

The process tracing discovers nine scope conditions which shape the political fate of OFW over a multi-decadal period. These include the existence/absence of national industry to benefit from OFW-related manufacturing and construction; the cost-differential between OFW and other indigenous energy sources (renewable and fossil fuels) and the availability of the latter; the size of the power system and its interconnection with neighbouring systems; grid limitations to the penetration of variable renewables and decadal expectations of penetration potential; the locations of electricity supply and demand centres and the available alternatives for grid expansion and reinforcement; long-term scenario planning for the power and energy systems and the available modelling tools and modellers; the level and trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and public support for mitigation; and decadal energy or emissions targets. The configuration of these scope conditions inform the battle of ideas in policy and political networks and in turn the causal mechanisms that bring OFW on to agendas or push it off agendas.

The fsQCA results do not provide strong support for the MSF general hypothesis. Findings suggest that the coincidence of a policy window opening, the three streams being ready for coupling and a policy entrepreneur coupling the streams, is not necessary for OFW to enjoy political agenda status. This study identifies simpler combinations of conditions that are sufficient for OFW’s agenda status. Having both the problem stream and the politics stream ripe for coupling is sufficient for explaining agenda change in most cases. That is, if most policy makers (civil servants and their specialist advisors) agree that OFW is a solution to a policy problem (whether that be climate change or national energy security), and either the programme for government or the balance of influence between industry groups are not opposed to OFW, then OFW will make it on to the political agenda of multiple institutions. This may occur without significant policy entrepreneurship, existing policy solutions for its deployment, or indeed policy windows like general elections or other focus events.

This thesis makes three types of contributions to the body of knowledge. Methodologically, it offers a novel operationalization of MSF as a falsifiable hypothesis. Theoretically, it develops new frameworks of the policy process aimed at power generation technology deployment and the grid connection policy cycle, and new hypotheses for testing. Empirically, in the rich details of the narrative (including extensive appendices), it provides a history of the first two decades of offshore wind energy in the Republic of Ireland, spanning the period 1999 – 2020.