Seasonal forecasting of the European North-West shelf seas: limits of winter and summer sea surface temperature predictability
dc.contributor.author | Atkins, JRC | |
dc.contributor.author | Tinker, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Graham, JA | |
dc.contributor.author | Scaife, AA | |
dc.contributor.author | Halloran, PR | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-09-19T13:55:21Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2024-09-18 | |
dc.date.updated | 2024-09-19T12:25:00Z | |
dc.description.abstract | The European North-West shelf seas (NWS) support economic interests and provide environmental services to adjacent countries. Expansion of offshore activities, such as renewable energy infrastructure, aquaculture, and growth of international shipping, will place increasingly complex demands on the marine environment over the coming decades. Skilful forecasting of NWS properties on seasonal timescales will help to effectively manage these activities. Here we quantify the skill of an operational large-ensemble ocean-atmosphere coupled global forecasting system (GloSea), as well as benchmark persistence forecasts, for predictions of NWS sea surface temperature (SST) at 2–4 months lead time in winter and summer. We identify sources of and limits to SST predictability, considering what additional skill may be available in the future. We find that GloSea NWS SST skill is generally high in winter and low in summer. GloSea outperforms simple persistence forecasts by adding information about atmospheric variability, but only to a modest extent as persistence of anomalies in the initial conditions contributes substantially to predictability. Where persistence is low – for example in seasonally stratified regions – GloSea forecasts show lower skill. GloSea skill can be degraded by model deficiencies in the relatively coarse global ocean component, which lacks dynamic tides and subsequently fails to robustly represent local circulation and mixing. However, “atmospheric mode matched” tests show potential for improving prediction skill of currently low performing regions if atmospheric circulation forecasts can be improved. This underlines the importance of coupled atmosphere-ocean model development for NWS seasonal forecasting applications. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Published online 18 September 2024 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07439-0 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/S007504/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/137496 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-5189-7538 (Scaife, Adam A) | |
dc.identifier | ScopusID: 6603887794 (Scaife, Adam A) | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-9227-0678 (Halloran, Paul R) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Springer | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68dd14c3 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00059 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2024. Open access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dc.subject | Seasonal forecasting | en_GB |
dc.subject | Predictability | en_GB |
dc.subject | Shelf seas | en_GB |
dc.subject | Sea surface temperature | en_GB |
dc.subject | Atmospheric circulations | en_GB |
dc.subject | Dynamical forecasting systems | en_GB |
dc.title | Seasonal forecasting of the European North-West shelf seas: limits of winter and summer sea surface temperature predictability | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2024-09-19T13:55:21Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0930-7575 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data availability: GloSea5 and GloSea6 SST and Z500 hindcast data used in this study (on native grids) were accessed directly from the UK Met Office but are also freely available (interpolated to 1° × 1° grid) from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S; https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68dd14c3). ERA5 data is also freely available from C3S (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573). CMEMS-v5 data is freely available from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00059). | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1432-0894 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Climate Dynamics | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Climate Dynamics | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2024-09-03 | |
dcterms.dateSubmitted | 2024-03-01 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2024-09-03 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2024-09-19T12:25:02Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2024-09-19T13:56:48Z | |
refterms.panel | C | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2024-09-18 | |
exeter.rights-retention-statement | No |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © The Author(s) 2024. Open access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/