Essays on long memory time series and fractional cointegration
Algarhi, Amr Saber Ibrahim
Thesis or dissertation
University of Exeter
The dissertation considers an indirect approach for the estimation of the cointegrating parameters, in the sense that the estimators are jointly constructed along with estimating other nuisance parameters. This approach was proposed by Robinson (2008) where a bivariate local Whittle estimator was developed to jointly estimate a cointegrating parameter along with the memory parameters and the phase parameters (discussed in chapter 2). The main contributions of this dissertation is to establish, similar to Robinson (2008), a joint estimation of the memory, cointegrating and phase parameters in stationary and nonstationary fractionally cointegrated models in a multivariate framework. In order to accomplish such task, a general shape of the spectral density matrix, first noted in Davidson and Hashimzade (2008), is utilised to cover multivariate jointly dependent stationary long memory time series allowing more than one cointegrating relation (discussed in chapter 3). Consequently, the notion of the extended discrete Fourier transform is adopted based on the work of Phillips (1999) to allow for the multivariate estimation to cover the non stationary region (explained in chapter 4). Overall, the estimation methods adopted in this dissertation follows the semiparametric approach, in that the spectral density is only specified in a neighbourhood of zero frequency. The dissertation is organised in four self-contained chapters that are connected to each other, in additional to this introductory chapter: • Chapter 1 discusses the univariate long memory time series analysis covering different definitions, models and estimation methods. Consequently, parametric and semiparametric estimation methods were applied to a univariate series of the daily Egyptian stock returns to examine the presence of long memory properties. The results show strong and significant evidence of long memory in the Egyptian stock market which refutes the hypothesis of market efficiency. • Chapter 2 expands the analysis in the first chapter using a bivariate framework first introduced by Robinson (2008) for long memory time series in stationary system. The bivariate model presents four unknown parameters, including two memory parameters, a phase parameter and a cointegration parameter, which are jointly estimated. The estimation analysis is applied to a bivariate framework includes the US and Canada inflation rates where a linear combination between the US and Canada inflation rates that has a long memory less than the two individual series has been detected. • Chapter 3 introduces a semiparametric local Whittle (LW) estimator for a general multivariate stationary fractional cointegration using a general shape of the spectral density matrix first introduced by Davidson and Hashimzade (2008). The proposed estimator is used to jointly estimate the memory parameters along with the cointegrating and phase parameters. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is proved. In addition, a Monte Carlo study is conducted to examine the performance of the new proposed estimator for different sample sizes. The multivariate local whittle estimation analysis is applied to three different relevant examples to examine the presence of fractional cointegration relationships. • In the first three chapters, the estimation procedures focused on the stationary case where the memory parameter is between zero and half. On the other hand, the analysis in chapter 4, which is a natural progress to that in chapter 3, adjusts the estimation procedures in order to cover the non-stationary values of the memory parameters. Chapter 4 expands the analysis in chapter 3 using the extended discrete Fourier transform and periodogram to extend the local Whittle estimation to non stationary multivariate systems. As a result, the new extended local Whittle (XLW) estimator can be applied throughout the stationary and non stationary zones. The XLW estimator is identical to the LW estimator in the stationary region, introduced in chapter 3. Application to a trivariate series of US money aggregates is employed.
Algarhi, A.S.I. (2013), "Long memory in the Egyptian stock market returns", International Research Journal of Economics and Finance 110, pp.27-46.
Algarhi, A.S.I. (2013), "Local Whittle estimation in stationary systems: Evidence from US and Canada inflation", Ozean Journal of Applied Science 6(2), pp.45-54.
Davidson, James E. H.
PhD in Economics