Back to the future: Assessing the impact of the 2004 flood in Dhaka in 2050 (conference paper)

Abstract

Planning to make a city flood resilient needs proper assessment of the future conditions. Urban growth models are being used as a planning tool for City development. Within the CORFU project flood management strategies will be developed suitable for cities with varied geographic and socio-economic conditions. This paper studies the application of Urban Growth Model (UDM) to determine the future condition of Dhaka City, which a rapidly developing capital of Bangladesh. Bangladesh lies in the delta of the Himalayan Mountain range and experiences frequent flooding. In 2004 an extreme flood event occurred in the country, which caused major damage to Dhaka City. If the same event occurs in 2050, it can be expected that the damage would increase significantly. Through application of urban growth model, urban flood model and damage model the damage that can be expected to happen in 2050 was determined in this paper. The paper also describes the key factors that are important to determine this impact and the associated uncertainties.