A methodology for probabilistic real-time forecasting – an urban case study
dc.contributor.author | Rene, Jeanne-Rose | |
dc.contributor.author | Madsen, Henrik | |
dc.contributor.author | Mark, Ole | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-10-03T10:24:38Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2012-12-19 | |
dc.description.abstract | The phenomenon of urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and can have significant economic and social consequences. The complex nature of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has facilitated a need to model and manage uncertainty. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for modelling uncertainty from single-valued QPFs at different forecast lead times. The uncertainty models in the form of probability distributions of rainfall forecasts combined with a sewer model is an important advancement in real-time forecasting at the urban scale. The methodological approach utilized in this paper involves a retrospective comparison between historical forecasted rainfall from a NWP model and observed rainfall from rain gauges from which conditional probability distributions of rainfall forecasts are derived. Two different sampling methods, respectively, a direct rainfall quantile approach and the Latin hypercube sampling based method were used to determine the uncertainty in forecasted variables (water level, volume) for a test urban area, the city of Aarhus. The results show the potential for applying probabilistic rainfall forecasts and their subsequent use in urban drainage forecasting for estimation of prediction uncertainty. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 15 (3), pp. 751-762 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.2166/hydro.2012.031 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/15670 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | IWA Publishing | en_GB |
dc.subject | forecasted rainfall | en_GB |
dc.subject | forecast rainfall | en_GB |
dc.subject | numerical weather prediction model | en_GB |
dc.subject | observed rainfall | en_GB |
dc.subject | real-time forecast | en_GB |
dc.subject | sewer model | en_GB |
dc.subject | uncertainty in rainfall forecast | en_GB |
dc.title | A methodology for probabilistic real-time forecasting – an urban case study | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2014-10-03T10:24:38Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1464-7141 | |
dc.description | Copyright © IWA Publishing 2013. The definitive peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in Journal of Hydroinformatics, Volume 15 (3), pp. 751-762 (2013), DOI:10.2166/hydro.2012.031 and is available at www.iwapublishing.com | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Journal of Hydroinformatics | en_GB |
refterms.dateFOA | 2018-12-05T10:55:36Z |