Usefulness of species traits in predicting range shifts

Abstract

Information on species’ ecological traits might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. We present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: (i) emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location, (ii) the distance a species can move, (iii) establishment of self-sustaining populations, and (iv) proliferation following establishment. We propose a framework that categorises traits according to their contribution to range-shift processes. We demonstrate how the framework enables the predictive value of traits to be evaluated empirically, how this categorisation can be used to better understand range shift processes, and illustrate how range shift estimates can be improved.