System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis
Powell, JH; Mustafee, N; Chen, A; et al.Hammond, M
Date: 29 May 2016
Article
Journal
European Journal of Operational Research
Publisher
Elsevier
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Current approaches to risk management stress the need for dynamic (i.e. continuous, ongoing) approaches
to risk identification as part of a planned resource application aimed at reducing the expected consequences
of undesired outcomes for the object of the assessment. We contend that these approaches place
insufficient emphasis on ...
Current approaches to risk management stress the need for dynamic (i.e. continuous, ongoing) approaches
to risk identification as part of a planned resource application aimed at reducing the expected consequences
of undesired outcomes for the object of the assessment. We contend that these approaches place
insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of three
factors, namely the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents and the
knowledge availability to those agents.
In this paper we address the first of these shortcomings, namely the mobilization of explicit system
knowledge in the identification of risks. We present a procedure for mobilizing quantitative and qualitative
dynamic system knowledge using the case of flood threat to an electricity substation as a worked
example. We assert that the approach described offers the potential of improving risk cognition by mobilizing
system knowledge.
Engineering
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
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