System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis
European Journal of Operational Research
© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Current approaches to risk management stress the need for dynamic (i.e. continuous, ongoing) approaches to risk identification as part of a planned resource application aimed at reducing the expected consequences of undesired outcomes for the object of the assessment. We contend that these approaches place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of three factors, namely the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents and the knowledge availability to those agents. In this paper we address the first of these shortcomings, namely the mobilization of explicit system knowledge in the identification of risks. We present a procedure for mobilizing quantitative and qualitative dynamic system knowledge using the case of flood threat to an electricity substation as a worked example. We assert that the approach described offers the potential of improving risk cognition by mobilizing system knowledge.
The project was supported via the University of Exeter’s Bridging the Gaps project [funded by the EPSRC’s Bridging the Gaps initiative (grant reference EP/I001433/1)]. Material deployed in the work can be accessed by direct communication with the corresponding author.
This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.
Volume 254,pp. 550–564