Predictive systems models can help elucidate bee declines driven by multiple combined stressors
Springer Verlag (Germany)
Reason for embargo
Bee declines are driven by multiple combined stresses, making it exceedingly difficult to identify experimentally the most critical threats to bees and their pollination services. We highlight here the too often ignored potential of mechanistic models in identifying critical stress combinations. Advanced bee models are now available as open access tools and offer an unprecedented opportunity for bee biologists to explore bee resilience tipping points in a variety of environmental contexts. We provide general guidelines on how to run bee models to help detect a priori critical stress combinations to be targeted in the field. This so-called funnel analysis should be performed in tight conjunction with the recent development of large-scale field monitoring programs for bee health surveillance.
This work was supported by the European Community program (797/2004) for French beekeeping coordinated by the French Ministry of Agriculture (RISQAPI project). JLO, MAB, and PK were funded by grants from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, UK [BB/J014915/1; BB/K014463/1]. We thank Axel Decourtye and Jean-François Odoux for useful discussions on honeybee colony modeling and field monitoring design, as well as two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments on the manuscript.
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.