Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate
De Lavergne, C
Nature Climate Change
Nature Publishing Group
This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature via the DOI in this record.
Reason for embargo
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.
Support was provided by the following organizations: N.J.A: QEII fellowship and Discovery Project awarded by the Australian Research Council (ARC DP110101161 and DP140102059); M.H.E., ARC Laureate Fellowship (FL100100214); V.M.D., Agence Nationale de la Recherche, project ANR-14-CE01-0001 (ASUMA), and logistical support to French Antarctic studies from the Institut Polaire Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV); B.S., PAGES Antarctica 2k and the ESF-PolarClimate HOLOCLIP project; H.G., the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS-Belgium), where he is Research Director; P.O.C., research grant ANPCyT PICT2012 2927; R.L.F., NSF grant 1341621; E.J.S., the Leverhulme Trust; S.T.G., NSF grants OCE-1234473 and PLR-1425989; D.P.S., NSF grant 1235231; NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF); G.R.S., NSF grants AGS-1206120 and AGS-1407360; D.S., the French ANR CEPS project Green Greenland (ANR-10-CEPL-0008); G.J.M., UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through the British Antarctic Survey research programme Polar Science for Planet Earth; A.K.M., US Department of Energy under contract DE-SC0012457; K.R.C., VUW doctoral scholarship; L.M.F., Australian Research Council (FL100100214); D.J.C., NERC grant NE/H014896/1; C.d.L., UPMC doctoral scholarship; A.J.O., EU grant FP7-PEOPLE-2012-IIF 331615; X.C., the French ANR CLIMICE (ANR-08-CEXC-012-01) and the FP7 PAST4FUTURE (243908) projects; J.A.R., Marsden grant VUW1408; I.E., NSF grant OCE-1357078; T.R.V., the Australian Government's Cooperative Research Centres programme, through the ACE CRC.
Vol. 6, pp. 917 - 926.