Electric vehicle market penetration and impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emission in the future: Beijing case
© 2017 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
This study focuses on the development of electric vehicles (EV) in the private passenger vehicle fleet in Beijing (China), analyzes how EVs will penetrate in the market, and estimates the resulting impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emissions up to 2030. A discrete choice model is adopted with consideration of variables including vehicle technical characteristics, fuel prices, charging conditions and support policies. Results show that by 2030, without technological breakthrough and support policies, the market share of EV will be less than 7%, with gasoline dominating the energy structure. With fast technological progress, charging facility establishment, subsidies and tax breaks, EVs will account for 70% of annual new vehicle sales and nearly half of the vehicle stock by 2030, resulting in the substitution of nearly 1 million tons of gasoline with 3.2 billion kWh electricity in 2030 and the reduction of 0.6 million tons of CO2 emission in 2030. Technological progress, charging conditions and fuel prices are the top three drivers. Subsidies play an important role in the early stage, while tax and supply-side policies can be good options as long-term incentives
This project was co-sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71690240, 71690244, 71373142 and 71673165) and International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China (2016YFE0102200). Lin Zhenhong of the US Oakridge National Lab is thanked for his great help in the modelling.
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Vol. 10,. 228