dc.contributor.author | Peng, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Ou, X | |
dc.contributor.author | Yuan, Z | |
dc.contributor.author | Yan, X | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, X | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-05-04T08:35:31Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2018-07-15 | |
dc.description.abstract | Energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of China's road transport sector have been increasing rapidly in recent years. Previous studies on the future trends trend to focus on the national picture and cannot offer regional insights. We build a novel bottom-up model to estimate the future energy demand and GHG emissions of China's road transport at a provincial level, considering local economic development, population and policies. Detailed technical characteristics of the future vehicle fleets are analyzed in several up-to date scenarios. The results indicate that China's vehicle stock will keep increasing to 543 million by 2050. The total direct petroleum demand and associated GHG emissions will peak at 508 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 1500 million tonnes CO 2 equivalent (Mt CO 2,e ) around 2030 in the Reference scenario. Natural gas vehicle diffusion has a large impact on petroleum demand reduction in the short term, with decreases of 41–46 Mtoe in 2050. Compared to the Reference case, battery electric and fuel cell vehicles will reduce petroleum demand by 94–157 and 28–54 Mtoe in 2050, respectively. When combined with decarbonization of future power supply, battery electric vehicles can play a significant role in reducing Well-to-Wheels GHG emissions in 2050 with 295–449 Mt CO 2,e more reductions. The spatial distributions of future vehicle stock, energy demand and GHG emissions vary among provinces and show a generally downward trend from east to west. Policy recommendations are made in terms of the development of alternative fuels and vehicle technologies considering provincial differences, expansion of natural gas vehicle market and acceleration of electric vehicle market penetration. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | We acknowledge the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71774095 and 71690244), China Energy and Climate Project, and International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China (2016YFE0102200). | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 222, pp. 313 - 328 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.139 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 71774095 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 71690244 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 2016YFE0102200 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/32717 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_GB |
dc.rights.embargoreason | Under embargo until 15 July 2019 in compliance with publisher policy. | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2018. This version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | en_GB |
dc.subject | Transportation energy | en_GB |
dc.subject | Vehicle stock | en_GB |
dc.subject | Energy demand | en_GB |
dc.subject | GHG emissions | en_GB |
dc.subject | EV | en_GB |
dc.subject | China | en_GB |
dc.title | Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.identifier.issn | 0306-2619 | |
dc.description | This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Applied Energy | en_GB |