Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change
dc.contributor.author | Liu, H | |
dc.contributor.author | Wang, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Chen, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Fu, G | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-05-30T13:09:09Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2018-05-21 | |
dc.description.abstract | Developing an adaptation option is challenging for long-term engineering decisions due to uncertain future climatic conditions; this is especially true for urban flood risk management. This study develops a real options approach to assess adaptation options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change. This approach is demonstrated using a case study of Waterloo in London, UK, in which three Sustainable Drainage System (SuDS) measures for surface water flood management, i.e., green roof, bio-retention and permeable pavement, are assessed. A trinomial tree model is used to represent the change in rainfall intensity over future horizons (2050 s and 2080 s) with the climate change data from UK Climate Projections 2009. A two-dimensional Cellular Automata-based model CADDIES is used to simulate surface water flooding. The results from the case study indicate that the real options approach is more cost-effective than the fixed adaptation approach. The benefit of real options adaptations is found to be higher with an increasing cost of SuDS measures compared to fixed adaptation. This study provides new evidence on the benefits of real options analysis in urban surface water flood risk management given the uncertainty associated with climate change. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | This research was partially funded by the British Council through the Global Innovation Initiative (GII206) and the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council under the Building Resilience into Risk Management project (EP/N010329/1). The corresponding author was funded by the China Scholarship Council. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 94 (1), pp. 1-18 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s11069-018-3349-1 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/33012 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Springer Verlag for International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards | en_GB |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2018. Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, duplication, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. | en_GB |
dc.subject | Real options | en_GB |
dc.subject | Flood risk | en_GB |
dc.subject | Climate change | en_GB |
dc.subject | Adaptation measures | en_GB |
dc.subject | NPV | en_GB |
dc.subject | SuDS | en_GB |
dc.title | Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.identifier.issn | 0921-030X | |
dc.description | This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Natural Hazards | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © The Author(s) 2018. Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, duplication, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.