Integrated Model for Water, Food, Energy, and Human Development

Abstract

Water, Food, and Energy (WFE) are basic needs crucial to human survival but also pervade many aspects of human development. Systemically, they are vastly interdependent. A system dynamics model was constructed to evaluate the dynamics behavior of WFE systems and their linkages to human development. The model was constructed, calibrated and tested against Indonesia national data on yearly basis from 1990 to 2015. System model comprising five modules, W-F-E sectors, demographic and human development. Analysis of error using Mean-Square Error (MSE), Root Means Square Percent Error (RMSPE), and Inequality statistics were used for model behavioral test. Preliminary results show that some variable like population size, GDP per capita, and Human Development Index (HDI) match historical trends and have low RMSPE (less than 10%). However, some variables pose greater error like Industrial water demands so it need to be reconstructed. Energy and Food module are being constructed. As part of the future work, once the model is fully constructed, it will be applied to assess the impact of a range of policy scenarios and implications on WFE and human development.